TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Kaderabek vs Radovan Pisa 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12141131311118––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:07 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRadovan Pisa to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 83 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Radovan Pisa at 54.9%
83 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 10–15 Radovan Pisa Ondrej Kaderabek has won 10 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:0754.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pisa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-15 in 25
Pisa
Wrong
gap of 5 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaderabek 1660 vs Pisa 1720
Pisa
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaderabek 40% vs Pisa 60%
Pisa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaderabek 30% vs Pisa 80%
Pisa
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaderabek -3 · Pisa -2
Kaderabek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Pisa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 2.00 / Pisa 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Pisa)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240428
Kaderabek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 37 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back30% 13 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Pisa1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 84 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it67% 60 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaderabek4wins
AwayPisa6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPisa leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaderabek50%2 of 4
AwayPisa66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S2Kaderabek7Pisa3n = 10Kaderabek took 7 of 10
S3Kaderabek2Pisa8n = 10Pisa took 8 of 10
S4Kaderabek5Pisa4n = 9Kaderabek took 5 of 9
S5Kaderabek1Pisa2n = 3Pisa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaderabekPisaK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.440.4−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 388 vs 384 / 79051.3%48.6%199 / 388 vs 384 / 790Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PisaKaderabek 2.00/Pisa 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Pisa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek4711119972R. Pisa51991111113
LSep 20 · 09:45O. Kaderabek33911941R. Pisa4211911113
WJun 30 · 08:38O. Kaderabek4291111113R. Pisa33118681
WJun 30 · 06:30O. Kaderabek3741111113R. Pisa30116491
LJun 29 · 09:15O. Kaderabek32611961R. Pisa3911611113
WJun 14 · 09:03O. Kaderabek47117711113R. Pisa4551111992
LJun 14 · 06:00O. Kaderabek28811811R. Pisa3811511113
LJun 8 · 08:53O. Kaderabek2611960R. Pisa351311113
WJun 8 · 07:45O. Kaderabek4612128143R. Pisa43101011121
LMay 21 · 12:18O. Kaderabek4611991162R. Pisa48911116113
O. Kaderabek10
LOct 2 · 08:23M. Vyskocil2.501111113O. Kaderabek1.509390LOct 2 · 07:15L. Adam2.00119117113O. Kaderabek1.7361171182LOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek2.0011119972R. Pisa1.73991111113WOct 2 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.5771714123M. Vyskocil2.25111512101WSep 21 · 08:18L. Svoboda2.2513711752O. Kaderabek1.571111611113LSep 21 · 07:15P. Wasik1.4411119113O. Kaderabek2.63271141WSep 21 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.6111119113L. Svoboda2.20961171LSep 21 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.73711281V. Burylov2.0011611113LSep 20 · 12:14M. Makara2.0261111113O. Kaderabek1.70117371LSep 20 · 11:15M. Zelinka1.6111611113O. Kaderabek2.20711591
R. Pisa10
LOct 3 · 12:44V. Burylov1.731111923R. Pisa2.00641101LOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113WOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192WOct 3 · 09:15R. Pisa1.8011711113L. Rulc1.91511791WOct 2 · 08:53R. Pisa2.10411711113L. Adam1.6711811572WOct 2 · 07:45M. Vyskocil1.801111101122R. Pisa1.91671211143WOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek2.0011119972R. Pisa1.73991111113WOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113WSep 30 · 20:19R. Pisa2.5011119113L. Dobias1.50881191WSep 30 · 19:45R. Pisa2.101111106113V. Burylov1.6797121192
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