TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Martin Kocvara vs Radovan Pisa 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111151412116––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Kocvara above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 79 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Martin Kocvara at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kocvara 12–6 Radovan Pisa Radovan Pisa has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2854.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pisa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Kocvara
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocvara 1777 vs Pisa 1697
Kocvara
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocvara 60% vs Pisa 40%
Kocvara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocvara 60% vs Pisa 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocvara +2 · Pisa -3
Pisa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kocvara) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocvara 1.909 / Pisa 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kocvara)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13240209
Kocvara1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 56 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back44% 23 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back20% 5 of 25
Pisa1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 84 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it67% 60 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocvara5wins
AwayPisa5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocvara33.3%1 of 3
AwayPisa42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocvara3Pisa7n = 10Pisa took 7 of 10
S2Kocvara5Pisa5n = 10split evenly
S3Kocvara4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Kocvara5Pisa3n = 8Kocvara took 5 of 8
S5Kocvara2Pisa1n = 3Kocvara took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocvaraPisaK − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.640.3−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocvaraPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 174 vs 381 / 78958.6%48.3%102 / 174 vs 381 / 789Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraKocvara 1.91/Pisa 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kocvara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 10:45M. Kocvara4591114113R. Pisa341151261
WSep 18 · 06:45M. Kocvara491011611113R. Pisa4412411982
LSep 13 · 18:45M. Kocvara2310490R. Pisa341211113
WSep 10 · 09:03M. Kocvara4241115123R. Pisa4111713101
LSep 10 · 05:30M. Kocvara4811891192R. Pisa50811119113
WAug 23 · 11:45M. Kocvara42411115113R. Pisa4611881182
LAug 12 · 06:15M. Kocvara311161041R. Pisa4281112113
LAug 10 · 09:45M. Kocvara2257100R. Pisa341111123
WAug 5 · 12:19M. Kocvara4111117123R. Pisa378811101
LAug 5 · 11:15M. Kocvara23321171R. Pisa4111118113
M. Kocvara10
WOct 4 · 12:23M. Kocvara2.0011912113O. Kaderabek1.738111031LOct 4 · 11:15O. Kaderabek1.801011115113M. Kocvara1.9112441182WOct 4 · 09:45M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Heinzl1.448780WOct 3 · 20:23V. Burylov1.731313241M. Kocvara2.00151111113LOct 3 · 19:15M. Kocvara2.2036111162L. Rulc1.61111196113LOct 3 · 18:15M. Kocvara1.806240V. Burylov1.911111113WOct 3 · 17:15M. Kocvara2.3813912113L. Dobias1.5311111091LSep 29 · 16:18J. Krames Sr1.401311113M. Kocvara2.7511550WSep 29 · 15:15M. Kocvara2.7512149113J. Krames Sr1.4010121191LSep 29 · 14:15M. Kocvara2.75811991L. Heinzl1.4011811113
R. Pisa10
WOct 4 · 11:45L. Heinzl1.73510111192R. Pisa2.00111277113LOct 4 · 09:15O. Kaderabek2.00121113113R. Pisa1.731431181LOct 3 · 12:44V. Burylov1.731111923R. Pisa2.00641101LOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113WOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192WOct 3 · 09:15R. Pisa1.8011711113L. Rulc1.91511791WOct 2 · 08:53R. Pisa2.10411711113L. Adam1.6711811572WOct 2 · 07:45M. Vyskocil1.801111101122R. Pisa1.91671211143WOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek2.0011119972R. Pisa1.73991111113WOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113
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