TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Kaderabek vs Martin Kocvara 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012114114511118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:59 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Martin Kocvara at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 3–1 Martin Kocvara Martin Kocvara has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5954.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaderabek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kaderabek
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaderabek 1675 vs Kocvara 1763
Kocvara
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaderabek 20% vs Kocvara 60%
Kocvara
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaderabek 40% vs Kocvara 60%
Kocvara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaderabek -1 · Kocvara +3
Kocvara
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kocvara) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 1.80 / Kocvara 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kocvara)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13239937
Kaderabek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 41 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Kocvara1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog55% won 56 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back44% 23 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back20% 5 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKaderabek3wins
AwayKocvara1wins
4 of 4 to a deciderKaderabek leads 3–1, and 4 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaderabekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKocvara0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek1Kocvara3n = 4Kocvara took 3 of 4
S2Kaderabek2Kocvara2n = 4split evenly
S3Kaderabek4Kocvara0n = 4Kaderabek took 4 of 4
S4Kaderabek1Kocvara3n = 4Kocvara took 3 of 4
S5Kaderabek3Kocvara1n = 4Kaderabek took 3 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home375%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKaderabekKocvaraKaderabek − KocvaraBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match45.544.2+1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 391 vs 102 / 17551.4%58.3%201 / 391 vs 102 / 175Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraKaderabek 1.80/Kocvara 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 4 · 11:15O. Kaderabek481011115113M. Kocvara3912441182
WJun 30 · 08:00O. Kaderabek48691111113M. Kocvara4211114792
LJun 20 · 13:08O. Kaderabek41117111112M. Kocvara50611913113
WJun 20 · 12:00O. Kaderabek45411115143M. Kocvara46118411122
O. Kaderabek10
LOct 4 · 12:23M. Kocvara2.0011912113O. Kaderabek1.738111031LOct 4 · 10:15O. Kaderabek2.50410141192L. Heinzl1.501112125113WOct 4 · 09:15O. Kaderabek2.00121113113R. Pisa1.731431181LOct 2 · 08:23M. Vyskocil2.501111113O. Kaderabek1.509390LOct 2 · 07:15L. Adam2.00119117113O. Kaderabek1.7361171182LOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek2.0011119972R. Pisa1.73991111113WOct 2 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.5771714123M. Vyskocil2.25111512101WSep 21 · 08:18L. Svoboda2.2513711752O. Kaderabek1.571111611113LSep 21 · 07:15P. Wasik1.4411119113O. Kaderabek2.63271141WSep 21 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.6111119113L. Svoboda2.20961171
M. Kocvara10
WOct 4 · 12:23M. Kocvara2.0011912113O. Kaderabek1.738111031WOct 4 · 10:45M. Kocvara1.9191114113R. Pisa1.801151261WOct 4 · 09:45M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Heinzl1.448780WOct 3 · 20:23V. Burylov1.731313241M. Kocvara2.00151111113LOct 3 · 19:15M. Kocvara2.2036111162L. Rulc1.61111196113LOct 3 · 18:15M. Kocvara1.806240V. Burylov1.911111113WOct 3 · 17:15M. Kocvara2.3813912113L. Dobias1.5311111091LSep 29 · 16:18J. Krames Sr1.401311113M. Kocvara2.7511550WSep 29 · 15:15M. Kocvara2.7512149113J. Krames Sr1.4010121191LSep 29 · 14:15M. Kocvara2.75811991L. Heinzl1.4011811113
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