TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Zavoloka vs Yurii Urezchenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
112411115511711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:57 and never touched: 79.0% is still 79.0%
Graded at full timeMykola Zavoloka to win
79.0%
79.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Zavoloka above · Yurii Urezchenko below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 78 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Mykola Zavoloka at 79.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Zavoloka 8–2 Yurii Urezchenko Yurii Urezchenko has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5779.0%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 2.8pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Zavoloka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Zavoloka
Wrong
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zavoloka 1238 vs Urezchenko 1109
Zavoloka
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zavoloka 60% vs Urezchenko 40%
Zavoloka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zavoloka 50% vs Urezchenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zavoloka -2 · Urezchenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Zavoloka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urezchenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZavoloka 1.222 / Urezchenko 4.00
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Zavoloka)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229191
Zavoloka1.22
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 36 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Urezchenko4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 36 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back13% 12 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZavoloka8wins
AwayUrezchenko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZavoloka leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZavoloka88.9%8 of 9
AwayUrezchenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zavoloka9Urezchenko1n = 10Zavoloka took 9 of 10
S2Zavoloka6Urezchenko4n = 10Zavoloka took 6 of 10
S3Zavoloka8Urezchenko2n = 10Zavoloka took 8 of 10
S4Zavoloka2Urezchenko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZavolokaUrezchenkoZ − UBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.231.1+7.1per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZavolokaUrezchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 96 vs 196 / 44855.2%43.8%53 / 96 vs 196 / 448Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZavolokaZavoloka 1.22/Urezchenko 4.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79%
Zavoloka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Urezchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 05:00M. Zavoloka331111113Y. Urezchenko217860
WSep 8 · 05:00M. Zavoloka381111163Y. Urezchenko2859140
WAug 25 · 05:00M. Zavoloka4411119133Y. Urezchenko301711111
WAug 24 · 05:00M. Zavoloka351111133Y. Urezchenko2678110
LAug 17 · 06:00M. Zavoloka541111166102Y. Urezchenko566131411123
WJul 8 · 10:00M. Zavoloka351113113Y. Urezchenko1731130
WJul 8 · 05:00M. Zavoloka4111711123Y. Urezchenko344119101
WJul 7 · 09:30M. Zavoloka44116115113Y. Urezchenko4291151162
WJun 29 · 09:30M. Zavoloka391711113Y. Urezchenko2315440
LJun 28 · 13:58M. Zavoloka1936100Y. Urezchenko341111123
M. Zavoloka10
WOct 2 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.111111113V. Hyriavyi6.009870LOct 1 · 09:58M. Zavoloka1.918790V. Khyzhnyak1.801111113LOct 1 · 09:00V. Khyzhnyak1.73111187113M. Zavoloka2.0075111192WOct 1 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.7359110M. Zavoloka2.001111133WOct 1 · 06:00V. Matviichuk2.6316650M. Zavoloka1.441811113WOct 1 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko3.507860M. Zavoloka1.281111113LSep 24 · 09:00S. Sideltsev1.5711911113M. Zavoloka2.25111951LSep 24 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.831411113M. Zavoloka1.8312670LSep 24 · 06:00I. Sorochan1.73131113113M. Zavoloka2.0011131161WSep 24 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.3614514972M. Zavoloka3.0012111211113
Y. Urezchenko10
WOct 2 · 07:30V. Hyriavyi2.75891191Y. Urezchenko1.4011119113WOct 2 · 06:00V. Saakian1.1711914141Y. Urezchenko4.5041116163LOct 1 · 09:30V. Matviichuk1.401111113Y. Urezchenko2.752870LOct 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.0011211282V. Khyzhnyak1.73711811113WOct 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko2.001111113S. Honcharenko1.735670LOct 1 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko3.507860M. Zavoloka1.281111113WSep 10 · 10:03Y. Urezchenko1.251311113O. Shvydkyi3.7511450LSep 10 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.4011111011133Y. Urezchenko2.75661213112WSep 10 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi3.50101140Y. Urezchenko1.281213113WSep 10 · 06:00S. Zherykhin2.6371111121Y. Urezchenko1.4411713143
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