TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Pohorilyi vs Mykola Zavoloka 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Mykola Pohorilyi
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14125111412911711
Mykola Zavoloka
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeMykola Pohorilyi to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Pohorilyi above · Mykola Zavoloka below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 106 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Mykola Pohorilyi at 71.6%
106 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Pohorilyi 1–1 Mykola Zavoloka Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 19h before this match
Zavoloka beat Pohorilyi 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Pohorilyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pohorilyi 1505 vs Zavoloka 1248
Pohorilyi
Wrong
both rated, 257 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohorilyi 40% vs Zavoloka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohorilyi 60% vs Zavoloka 40%
Pohorilyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohorilyi -2 · Zavoloka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Pohorilyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohorilyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohorilyi 1.36 / Zavoloka 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Pohorilyi)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13185360
Pohorilyi1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 135 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it88% 107 of 122
Zavoloka3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 9 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePohorilyi1wins
AwayZavoloka1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPohorilyiZavolokaP − ZBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match33.029.0+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohorilyiZavolokaBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 629 vs 49 / 8758.2%56.3%366 / 629 vs 49 / 87Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PohorilyiPohorilyi 1.36/Zavoloka 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.6%
Pohorilyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zavoloka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 23 · 10:04M. Pohorilyi33811681M. Zavoloka4111811113
WSep 23 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi331111113M. Zavoloka177460
M. Pohorilyi10
LSep 24 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.20116101172S. Honcharenko4.33911124113LSep 23 · 10:04M. Pohorilyi1.73811681M. Zavoloka2.0011811113LSep 23 · 09:00V. Kurliuk3.40119117113M. Pohorilyi1.3091131192WSep 23 · 07:30E. Bakin4.506430M. Pohorilyi1.171111113LSep 23 · 06:00V. Simchuk2.3891111113M. Pohorilyi1.53118881WSep 23 · 05:00M. Zavoloka2.637460M. Pohorilyi1.441111113WSep 18 · 10:33N. Priadko1.911131071M. Pohorilyi1.8081112113WSep 18 · 09:30I. Sorochan3.2511128101M. Pohorilyi1.3361411123WSep 18 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi1.201111113S. Honcharenko4.339660LSep 18 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.36711811102N. Priadko3.00118118123
M. Zavoloka10
LSep 24 · 06:00I. Sorochan1.73131113113M. Zavoloka2.0011131161WSep 23 · 10:04M. Pohorilyi1.73811681M. Zavoloka2.0011811113LSep 23 · 09:30V. Simchuk1.301211113M. Zavoloka3.4010650LSep 23 · 08:00M. Zavoloka2.63651151V. Kurliuk1.4411119113WSep 23 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.8311127113E. Bakin1.838101171LSep 23 · 05:00M. Zavoloka2.637460M. Pohorilyi1.441111113LSep 22 · 09:59V. Khyzhnyak2.001211113M. Zavoloka1.7310570LSep 22 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.001111123M. Zavoloka1.7367100LSep 22 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.61512791V. Khyzhnyak2.20111011113WSep 22 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.171113113V. Hyriavyi4.5081190
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