TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valentyn Kurliuk vs Mykola Pohorilyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Valentyn Kurliuk
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911113711119
Mykola Pohorilyi
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:47 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeMykola Pohorilyi to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValentyn Kurliuk above · Mykola Pohorilyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 92 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Mykola Pohorilyi at 75.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Kurliuk 9–14 Mykola Pohorilyi Valentyn Kurliuk has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Pohorilyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-14 in 23
Pohorilyi
Wrong
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurliuk 1311 vs Pohorilyi 1546
Pohorilyi
Wrong
both rated, 235 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurliuk 60% vs Pohorilyi 80%
Pohorilyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurliuk 60% vs Pohorilyi 80%
Pohorilyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurliuk +1 · Pohorilyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Pohorilyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurliuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurliuk 3.40 / Pohorilyi 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Pohorilyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13179986
Kurliuk3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog16% won 7 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Pohorilyi1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 133 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it88% 105 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurliuk2wins
AwayPohorilyi8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPohorilyi leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurliuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayPohorilyi100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurliuk3Pohorilyi7n = 10Pohorilyi took 7 of 10
S2Kurliuk3Pohorilyi7n = 10Pohorilyi took 7 of 10
S3Kurliuk2Pohorilyi8n = 10Pohorilyi took 8 of 10
S4Kurliuk2Pohorilyi3n = 5Pohorilyi took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurliukPohorilyiK − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.937.5−6.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurliukPohorilyiBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 289 vs 366 / 62751.2%58.4%148 / 289 vs 366 / 627Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PohorilyiKurliuk 3.40/Pohorilyi 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.9%
Pohorilyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kurliuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 05:00V. Kurliuk238870M. Pohorilyi331111113
LAug 5 · 05:00V. Kurliuk4491191142M. Pohorilyi47119115113
LJul 19 · 05:00V. Kurliuk33911491M. Pohorilyi3811511113
LJul 17 · 17:28V. Kurliuk206590M. Pohorilyi331111113
WJul 17 · 16:30V. Kurliuk331111113M. Pohorilyi249780
LJun 26 · 05:00V. Kurliuk189360M. Pohorilyi331111113
LMay 28 · 09:00V. Kurliuk361151281M. Pohorilyi45131110113
LMay 20 · 05:30V. Kurliuk246990M. Pohorilyi331111113
LDec 23 · 11:30V. Kurliuk30118831M. Pohorilyi4291111113
WDec 23 · 09:30V. Kurliuk48118612113M. Pohorilyi47611111092
V. Kurliuk10
WSep 23 · 08:00M. Zavoloka2.63651151V. Kurliuk1.4411119113LSep 23 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.6191111113V. Kurliuk2.20119561WSep 23 · 05:30E. Bakin1.801110591V. Kurliuk1.9191211113WSep 17 · 09:59M. Zavoloka2.10391181V. Kurliuk1.6711117113LSep 17 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.201311113V. Kurliuk1.6111480WSep 17 · 08:00V. Kurliuk1.3011117113V. Matviichuk3.40741161LSep 17 · 06:30V. Kurliuk2.10511891V. Simchuk1.6711711113WSep 17 · 05:00V. Kurliuk2.251111113M. Zavoloka1.575870LSep 9 · 10:10V. Kurliuk3.50811612112I. Sorochan1.251131110133WSep 9 · 09:00S. Honcharenko1.91511481V. Kurliuk1.8011611113
M. Pohorilyi10
LSep 23 · 10:04M. Pohorilyi1.73811681M. Zavoloka2.0011811113WSep 23 · 07:30E. Bakin4.506430M. Pohorilyi1.171111113LSep 23 · 06:00V. Simchuk2.3891111113M. Pohorilyi1.53118881WSep 23 · 05:00M. Zavoloka2.637460M. Pohorilyi1.441111113WSep 18 · 10:33N. Priadko1.911131071M. Pohorilyi1.8081112113WSep 18 · 09:30I. Sorochan3.2511128101M. Pohorilyi1.3361411123WSep 18 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi1.201111113S. Honcharenko4.339660LSep 18 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.36711811102N. Priadko3.00118118123WSep 18 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.611112113P. Shulhachyk2.2051060WSep 17 · 17:44P. Shulhachyk1.911111221M. Pohorilyi1.8071311113
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