TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Pohorilyi vs Serhii Honcharenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Mykola Pohorilyi
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1196111012114711
Serhii Honcharenko
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:40 and never touched — 81.9% is still 81.9%
Graded at full timeMykola Pohorilyi to win
81.9%
81.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Pohorilyi above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Mykola Pohorilyi at 81.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Pohorilyi 34–23 Serhii Honcharenko Serhii Honcharenko has won 23 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Pohorilyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-23 in 57
Pohorilyi
Wrong
gap of 11 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohorilyi 1482 vs Honcharenko 1330
Pohorilyi
Wrong
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohorilyi 20% vs Honcharenko 60%
Honcharenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohorilyi 50% vs Honcharenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohorilyi -3 · Honcharenko -2
Pohorilyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Pohorilyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohorilyi 1.20 / Honcharenko 4.33
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Pohorilyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13185229
Pohorilyi1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 135 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it88% 107 of 122
Honcharenko4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 72 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohorilyi8wins
AwayHoncharenko2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPohorilyi leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohorilyi87.5%7 of 8
AwayHoncharenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohorilyi8Honcharenko2n = 10Pohorilyi took 8 of 10
S2Pohorilyi8Honcharenko2n = 10Pohorilyi took 8 of 10
S3Pohorilyi7Honcharenko3n = 10Pohorilyi took 7 of 10
S4Pohorilyi3Honcharenko0n = 3Pohorilyi took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohorilyiHoncharenkoP − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match34.827.5+7.3per matchSweeps61+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohorilyiHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 631 vs 433 / 84158%51.5%366 / 631 vs 433 / 841Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PohorilyiPohorilyi 1.20/Honcharenko 4.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.9%
Pohorilyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi45116101172S. Honcharenko47911124113
WSep 18 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi331111113S. Honcharenko219660
WSep 11 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi341112113S. Honcharenko1951040
WAug 18 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi4281211113S. Honcharenko371110881
WAug 10 · 16:30M. Pohorilyi331111113S. Honcharenko175750
WAug 5 · 09:58M. Pohorilyi351311113S. Honcharenko2711970
WAug 5 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi4211119113S. Honcharenko32891141
LJul 28 · 13:00M. Pohorilyi188460S. Honcharenko331111113
WJul 20 · 06:00M. Pohorilyi331111113S. Honcharenko206950
WJun 26 · 09:30M. Pohorilyi331111113S. Honcharenko227690
M. Pohorilyi10
LSep 24 · 05:00M. Pohorilyi1.3614514972M. Zavoloka3.0012111211113LSep 23 · 10:04M. Pohorilyi1.73811681M. Zavoloka2.0011811113LSep 23 · 09:00V. Kurliuk3.40119117113M. Pohorilyi1.3091131192WSep 23 · 07:30E. Bakin4.506430M. Pohorilyi1.171111113LSep 23 · 06:00V. Simchuk2.3891111113M. Pohorilyi1.53118881WSep 23 · 05:00M. Zavoloka2.637460M. Pohorilyi1.441111113WSep 18 · 10:33N. Priadko1.911131071M. Pohorilyi1.8081112113WSep 18 · 09:30I. Sorochan3.2511128101M. Pohorilyi1.3361411123WSep 18 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi1.201111113S. Honcharenko4.339660LSep 18 · 06:30M. Pohorilyi1.36711811102N. Priadko3.00118118123
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 24 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.831411113M. Zavoloka1.8312670LSep 24 · 05:30S. Honcharenko4.00511711122S. Sideltsev1.22118116143LSep 22 · 10:28V. Matviichuk2.50811118113S. Honcharenko1.5011431192WSep 22 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.001111123M. Zavoloka1.7367100WSep 22 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.281111113V. Hyriavyi3.503770WSep 22 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.1711611113V. Khyzhnyak4.50411681LSep 22 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.539111161V. Matviichuk2.3811313113WSep 18 · 10:04S. Honcharenko1.441111133I. Sorochan2.6378110WSep 18 · 09:00S. Honcharenko3.501111123P. Shulhachyk1.2855100LSep 18 · 08:00M. Pohorilyi1.201111113S. Honcharenko4.339660
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