TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Skvrna vs Dominik Pawlik 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11213114111012116
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:31 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 91 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 63.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 9–4 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:31What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1646 vs Pawlik 1527
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 20% vs Pawlik 0%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 30% vs Pawlik 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna -1 · Pawlik -5
Pawlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.53 / Pawlik 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Skvrna)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13186754
Skvrna1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 230 of 392
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 161 of 214
Pawlik2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 49 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna7wins
AwayPawlik3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna87.5%7 of 8
AwayPawlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna8Pawlik2n = 10Skvrna took 8 of 10
S2Skvrna4Pawlik6n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S3Skvrna4Pawlik6n = 10Pawlik took 6 of 10
S4Skvrna6Pawlik4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S5Skvrna3Pawlik1n = 4Skvrna took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaPawlikS − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.740.7+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime486 / 839 vs 242 / 48857.9%49.6%486 / 839 vs 242 / 488Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.53/Pawlik 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 06:45J. Skvrna491113410113D. Pawlik42211111262
WSep 22 · 12:44J. Skvrna4011117113D. Pawlik33671191
WSep 22 · 10:45J. Skvrna46125117113D. Pawlik42101151152
WAug 2 · 09:45J. Skvrna44111111113D. Pawlik33613951
WJul 29 · 08:45J. Skvrna4111118113D. Pawlik36791191
LJul 29 · 07:45J. Skvrna359101151D. Pawlik4111127113
LApr 27 · 11:40J. Skvrna48811811102D. Pawlik48117117123
WApr 18 · 12:40J. Skvrna4115411113D. Pawlik401311791
LApr 18 · 11:10J. Skvrna351131561D. Pawlik4451117113
WApr 18 · 05:40J. Skvrna5811131211113D. Pawlik4871514752
J. Skvrna10
WSep 24 · 07:45J. Skvrna1.676111211113J. Krupnik2.1011914142LSep 24 · 05:45J. Skvrna1.73119441I. Heuman2.0061111113WSep 23 · 16:48M. Zaskodny2.7591112121J. Skvrna1.4011714143LSep 23 · 16:10J. Skvrna1.306111191M. Zaskodny3.4011813113LSep 23 · 14:40D. Sarganek1.831112113J. Skvrna1.8331080LSep 23 · 14:10A. Baros1.73511136113J. Skvrna2.00116111182WSep 23 · 12:40L. Slavik2.20910111552J. Skvrna1.611112813113LSep 23 · 11:45L. Slavik2.251281211113J. Skvrna1.57101114892LSep 23 · 11:15B. Mrowetz1.911111113J. Skvrna1.807970LSep 23 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.6774111192J. Krupnik2.10111176113
D. Pawlik10
LSep 24 · 08:45J. Krupnik1.5010111111113D. Pawlik2.5012138882LSep 24 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.914101561I. Heuman1.80111213113LSep 24 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.6115511113D. Pawlik2.201311771LSep 22 · 12:44J. Skvrna1.5711117113D. Pawlik2.25671191LSep 22 · 12:15D. Pawlik2.009790D. Jr1.731111113LSep 22 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.57125117113D. Pawlik2.25101151152LSep 22 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111177123D. Pawlik2.00681111102WSep 21 · 08:48I. Heuman1.7311111962D. Pawlik2.00661111113LSep 21 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73411811113D. Pawlik2.0011311482WSep 21 · 07:15R. Benes1.807890D. Pawlik1.911111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Skvrna
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D. Pawlik
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