TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Krupnik vs Dominik Pawlik 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121113118118118
Dominik Pawlik
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeJan Krupnik to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 103 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jan Krupnik at 66.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 22–14 Dominik Pawlik Dominik Pawlik has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Krupnik beat Pawlik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Krupnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-14 in 36
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1675 vs Pawlik 1520
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 40% vs Pawlik 0%
Krupnik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 70% vs Pawlik 20%
Krupnik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik -2 · Pawlik -7
Pawlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Krupnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.50 / Pawlik 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Krupnik)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13188188
Krupnik1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 130 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it92% 59 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it73% 92 of 126
Pawlik2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 49 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik7wins
AwayPawlik3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrupnik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnik80%4 of 5
AwayPawlik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S2Krupnik7Pawlik3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S3Krupnik5Pawlik5n = 10split evenly
S4Krupnik5Pawlik2n = 7Krupnik took 5 of 7
S5Krupnik2Pawlik1n = 3Krupnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikPawlikK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.736.2+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 916 vs 242 / 48951.8%49.5%474 / 916 vs 242 / 489Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupnikKrupnik 1.50/Pawlik 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Krupnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 08:45J. Krupnik5410111111113D. Pawlik4912138882
WSep 24 · 06:15J. Krupnik4215511113D. Pawlik381311771
LSep 11 · 13:05J. Krupnik184950D. Pawlik331111113
WSep 11 · 11:10J. Krupnik4061112113D. Pawlik341171061
WSep 10 · 09:20J. Krupnik4011162113D. Pawlik332141161
LSep 10 · 05:45J. Krupnik4311117592D. Pawlik48871111113
LSep 3 · 10:40J. Krupnik28611561D. Pawlik3911611113
WAug 25 · 07:10J. Krupnik331111113D. Pawlik217590
WAug 19 · 08:15J. Krupnik46911411113D. Pawlik4311611962
WAug 14 · 08:48J. Krupnik331111113D. Pawlik247980
J. Krupnik10
LSep 24 · 07:45J. Skvrna1.676111211113J. Krupnik2.1011914142LSep 24 · 07:15I. Heuman2.20117117113J. Krupnik1.6181141122WSep 24 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.6115511113D. Pawlik2.201311771LSep 23 · 13:08J. Krupnik1.7371160B. Mrowetz2.001113113WSep 23 · 12:15J. Krupnik1.911111113B. Mrowetz1.805850WSep 23 · 10:45L. Slavik2.005811101J. Krupnik1.7311118123WSep 23 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.6774111192J. Krupnik2.10111176113WSep 23 · 09:14J. Krupnik1.6111711113E. Precek2.20711991WSep 23 · 07:40J. Krupnik1.8391111113R. Benes1.83118771WSep 23 · 06:40J. Krupnik1.57111198113R. Solle2.2578111182
D. Pawlik10
LSep 24 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.914101561I. Heuman1.80111213113LSep 24 · 06:45J. Skvrna1.531113410113D. Pawlik2.38211111262LSep 24 · 06:15J. Krupnik1.6115511113D. Pawlik2.201311771LSep 22 · 12:44J. Skvrna1.5711117113D. Pawlik2.25671191LSep 22 · 12:15D. Pawlik2.009790D. Jr1.731111113LSep 22 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.57125117113D. Pawlik2.25101151152LSep 22 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111177123D. Pawlik2.00681111102WSep 21 · 08:48I. Heuman1.7311111962D. Pawlik2.00661111113LSep 21 · 07:45T. Krenek1.73411811113D. Pawlik2.0011311482WSep 21 · 07:15R. Benes1.807890D. Pawlik1.911111113
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