TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Frantisek Dvorak vs Ondrej Knazik 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Frantisek Dvorak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811114114113––
Ondrej Knazik
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:21 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Dvorak to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Dvorak above · Ondrej Knazik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 63 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Frantisek Dvorak at 54.2%
63 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Dvorak 24–29 Ondrej Knazik Frantisek Dvorak has won 24 of their 53 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Dvorak beat Knazik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-29 in 53
Knazik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1556 vs Knazik 1484
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Knazik 40%
Dvorak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 70% vs Knazik 40%
Dvorak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Knazik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Knazik form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.80 / Knazik 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13183670
Dvorak1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite70% won 46 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Knazik1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 64 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak6wins
AwayKnazik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak75%3 of 4
AwayKnazik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak4Knazik6n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak4Knazik6n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S3Dvorak4Knazik6n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S4Dvorak5Knazik1n = 6Dvorak took 5 of 6
S5Dvorak3Knazik1n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakKnazikD − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.237.3+0.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakKnazikBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 294 vs 443 / 85954.8%51.6%161 / 294 vs 443 / 859Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.80/Knazik 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.2%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 10:20F. Dvorak341111123O. Knazik2679100
LAug 19 · 10:50F. Dvorak4411671192O. Knazik46911114113
LAug 12 · 13:55F. Dvorak2681170O. Knazik351113113
WAug 12 · 10:20F. Dvorak561191114113O. Knazik48711131252
WAug 6 · 12:50F. Dvorak4071111113O. Knazik31119561
WAug 5 · 12:25F. Dvorak4181111113O. Knazik28115661
LJul 16 · 10:04F. Dvorak165920O. Knazik331111113
LJul 16 · 06:55F. Dvorak2381050O. Knazik341112113
WJun 10 · 10:50F. Dvorak53913117133O. Knazik491111511112
WJun 4 · 10:25F. Dvorak49119711113O. Knazik4371111952
F. Dvorak10
LSep 23 · 12:20F. Dvorak1.2811116852T. Rein3.50421111113WSep 23 · 11:20F. Dvorak2.501111113D. Vojna1.509520WSep 23 · 10:20F. Dvorak1.911111123O. Knazik1.8079100LSep 16 · 14:30F. Dvorak1.6111116782S. Holik2.20651111113WSep 16 · 13:25S. Holik1.73711651F. Dvorak2.0011911113WSep 16 · 12:25F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.253560WSep 16 · 10:55V. Koutnik1.8311680F. Dvorak1.831311113LSep 10 · 10:35V. Koutnik1.671111113F. Dvorak2.108870WSep 10 · 08:55F. Dvorak2.10117911113J. Osmera1.6781111652WSep 10 · 07:55F. Dvorak1.331111113T. Rein3.257780
O. Knazik10
WSep 23 · 12:50D. Vojna1.8099100O. Knazik1.911111123WSep 23 · 11:50O. Knazik1.361311113T. Rein3.0011260LSep 23 · 10:20F. Dvorak1.911111123O. Knazik1.8079100LSep 18 · 14:00V. Koutnik1.801311113O. Knazik1.9011840LSep 18 · 13:25S. Holik1.801513113O. Knazik1.91131180LSep 18 · 12:25O. Knazik1.571061191V. Koutnik2.2512119113LSep 18 · 10:55P. Vodal2.201111113O. Knazik1.616350LSep 15 · 13:54M. Filipek2.20811711113O. Knazik1.6111711972WSep 15 · 12:20J. Osmera1.73711651O. Knazik2.0011911113WSep 15 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.503411111O. Knazik2.5011117133
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