TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Vojtech Koutnik vs Jachym Sebl 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611115411911––
Jachym Sebl
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 68 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 55.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 13–11 Jachym Sebl Jachym Sebl has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Koutnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Koutnik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1612 vs Sebl 1654
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 80% vs Sebl 40%
Koutnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 80% vs Sebl 60%
Koutnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik +2 · Sebl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Koutnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 1.61 / Sebl 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Koutnik)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13176841
Koutnik1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 46 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it72% 34 of 47
Sebl2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 69 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoutnik7wins
AwaySebl3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoutnik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnik83.3%5 of 6
AwaySebl50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik6Sebl4n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S2Koutnik7Sebl3n = 10Koutnik took 7 of 10
S3Koutnik8Sebl2n = 10Koutnik took 8 of 10
S4Koutnik3Sebl3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoutnikSeblK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.332.8+5.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 366 vs 304 / 62948.4%48.3%177 / 366 vs 304 / 629Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoutnikKoutnik 1.61/Sebl 2.20
Miss
What we said
54.9%
Koutnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 15:20V. Koutnik30611491J. Sebl3811511113
WSep 20 · 07:55V. Koutnik371115113J. Sebl3191390
WJun 27 · 09:59V. Koutnik331111113J. Sebl186660
WJun 27 · 08:55V. Koutnik3911124123J. Sebl3431011101
WMay 9 · 21:55V. Koutnik331111113J. Sebl163490
WMay 9 · 21:25V. Koutnik3851111113J. Sebl28115661
LApr 6 · 10:25V. Koutnik43981791J. Sebl48111115113
WApr 6 · 06:55V. Koutnik331111113J. Sebl238870
LMar 28 · 16:25V. Koutnik4511811872J. Sebl47911511113
WMar 20 · 12:55V. Koutnik521091111113J. Sebl4512118592
V. Koutnik10
WSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101WSep 22 · 14:20V. Koutnik1.5713115143T. Rein2.2511311121WSep 20 · 10:34V. Koutnik1.831111113Z. Muhlhauser1.834580LSep 20 · 09:25V. Koutnik1.701448111J. Cousin2.02121111133WSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl1.8591390V. Koutnik1.851115113WSep 20 · 07:25Z. Muhlhauser1.9511711952V. Koutnik1.74911311113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Jr2.105111191V. Koutnik1.6511138113LSep 19 · 17:25A. Jr2.2511116113V. Koutnik1.57741151WSep 19 · 16:25V. Koutnik1.4411711113C. Kratochvil2.63911951WSep 19 · 14:55J. Cousin1.9151150V. Koutnik1.801113113
J. Sebl10
WSep 22 · 16:50J. Sebl1.6712128113T. Rein2.1010101181LSep 22 · 14:50D. Zelezny2.10981211113J. Sebl1.67111110872WSep 20 · 10:06J. Sebl1.57151111113J. Cousin2.251313941LSep 20 · 08:55J. Sebl1.59101111892Z. Muhlhauser2.07127811113LSep 20 · 07:55J. Sebl1.8591390V. Koutnik1.851115113WSep 20 · 06:55J. Sebl1.601114113J. Cousin2.2071280WSep 13 · 14:25L. Rek2.255540J. Sebl1.551111113WSep 13 · 12:55L. Jirka2.258720J. Sebl1.571111113LSep 13 · 12:25L. Rek2.50111189113J. Sebl1.5088111152WSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl1.57111189113D. Zelezny2.2533111182
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