TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Rein vs Daniel Zelezny 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61114128111191113
Daniel Zelezny
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeDaniel Zelezny to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Daniel Zelezny below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 106 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Daniel Zelezny at 61.2%
106 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 4–5 Daniel Zelezny Tomas Rein has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zelezny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1384 vs Zelezny 1554
Zelezny
Correct
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 20% vs Zelezny 80%
Zelezny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 30% vs Zelezny 60%
Zelezny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein -3 · Zelezny +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Zelezny) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.63 / Zelezny 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Zelezny)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13176837
Rein2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 93 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back21% 37 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 95
Zelezny1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 31 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRein4wins
AwayZelezny5wins
2 of 9 to a deciderZelezny leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein66.7%2 of 3
AwayZelezny66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein3Zelezny6n = 9Zelezny took 6 of 9
S2Rein5Zelezny4n = 9Rein took 5 of 9
S3Rein6Zelezny3n = 9Rein took 6 of 9
S4Rein2Zelezny4n = 6Zelezny took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricReinZeleznyR − ZBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match36.737.9−1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinZeleznyBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 847 vs 113 / 21445.8%52.8%388 / 847 vs 113 / 214Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.840.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZeleznyRein 2.63/Zelezny 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Zelezny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zelezny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein42920491D. Zelezny51111811113
WSep 15 · 15:50T. Rein4491311113D. Zelezny351111941
LSep 11 · 14:50T. Rein31691241D. Zelezny43111110113
WJul 4 · 11:55T. Rein511171111113D. Zelezny4213117382
LJun 4 · 16:50T. Rein2371060D. Zelezny341112113
WMay 29 · 17:20T. Rein331111113D. Zelezny259880
LMay 29 · 14:50T. Rein321174101D. Zelezny3841111123
WMay 16 · 18:03T. Rein331111113D. Zelezny259880
LMay 16 · 15:25T. Rein4171211382D. Zelezny481110511113
T. Rein10
LSep 22 · 16:50J. Sebl1.6712128113T. Rein2.1010101181LSep 22 · 14:20V. Koutnik1.5713115143T. Rein2.2511311121LSep 20 · 18:00T. Rein—513761B. Budik—111111113LSep 20 · 16:55T. Rein1.61117381A. Jr2.2031111113WSep 20 · 15:55T. Rein2.95111011113B. Budik1.33712951LSep 20 · 14:55T. Rein2.3812660J. Dohnal1.531411113LSep 19 · 22:04T. Rein2.2510113101J. Dohnal1.5712511123LSep 19 · 20:55T. Rein2.759860C. Kratochvil1.401111113WSep 19 · 19:55T. Rein2.63711711123J. Dohnal1.44117119102WSep 19 · 18:55T. Rein2.40511411113B. Budik1.5111711892
D. Zelezny10
LSep 22 · 16:20V. Koutnik1.8351111123D. Zelezny1.831148101WSep 22 · 14:50D. Zelezny2.10981211113J. Sebl1.67111110872WSep 15 · 17:50T. Rein2.40920491D. Zelezny1.50111811113WSep 15 · 16:20T. Jr2.00119111122D. Zelezny1.73611913113LSep 15 · 15:50T. Rein2.7591311113D. Zelezny1.401111941WSep 15 · 14:50D. Zelezny1.361111123A. Jr3.0097100WSep 13 · 13:55L. Jirka2.07118641D. Zelezny1.6781111113WSep 13 · 13:25D. Zelezny1.731114113L. Rek2.0071280LSep 13 · 11:55L. Jirka2.20111156123D. Zelezny1.61671111102LSep 13 · 11:25J. Sebl1.57111189113D. Zelezny2.2533111182
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