TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Marud vs Jakub Nowak 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181171214112––
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:03 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 76 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Grzegorz Marud at 57.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 73–35 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 35 of their 108 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
73-35 in 108
Marud
Correct
gap of 38 in 108, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1382 vs Nowak 1242
Marud
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 60% vs Nowak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 40% vs Nowak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Nowak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Marud)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.73 / Nowak 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Marud)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13176681
Marud1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 133 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it87% 80 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it70% 107 of 152
Nowak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 240 of 660
Down 0–1, comes back22% 85 of 396
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 230
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud8wins
AwayNowak2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud88.9%8 of 9
AwayNowakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud9Nowak1n = 10Marud took 9 of 10
S2Marud7Nowak3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S3Marud7Nowak3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S4Marud2Nowak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudNowakM − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.531.1+7.4per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime656 / 1378 vs 677 / 174947.6%38.7%656 / 1378 vs 677 / 1749Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.73/Nowak 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 01:30G. Marud331111113J. Nowak163940
WSep 13 · 19:30G. Marud49119117113J. Nowak4261181162
WSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud331111113J. Nowak204880
WSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud331111113J. Nowak228950
LSep 8 · 03:05G. Marud31108130J. Nowak381211153
WSep 7 · 21:05G. Marud351113113J. Nowak2231180
WAug 31 · 23:30G. Marud45131011113J. Nowak361112671
LAug 31 · 19:10G. Marud46111158112J. Nowak50691111133
WAug 5 · 01:45G. Marud371115113J. Nowak3091380
WJul 28 · 24:30G. Marud4311119123J. Nowak355911101
G. Marud10
LSep 22 · 17:45G. Marud2.102M. Koczyba1.673LSep 22 · 16:15G. Marud1.408980G. Jurowicz2.751111113WSep 22 · 15:00G. Marud1.80121211113M. Adamus1.9110101361WSep 22 · 05:05G. Marud1.57871111113P. Slosarczyk2.2011119972LSep 22 · 03:30G. Marud2.09111377112S. Szostok1.536111111133WSep 22 · 01:50G. Marud1.751112311113M. Sikon1.9571411762WSep 22 · 24:30G. Marud1.91611911113M. Baron1.7811911882LSep 21 · 23:30G. Marud1.86119951P. Kurek1.6991111113LSep 21 · 22:20M. Baron1.951111113G. Marud1.756950LSep 21 · 21:30S. Szostok1.571115113G. Marud2.0261370
J. Nowak10
WSep 22 · 19:40G. Jurowicz1.6191191192J. Nowak2.20119114113LSep 22 · 18:10J. Nowak1.9110L. Oracz1.8061WSep 22 · 16:35J. Nowak1.731111107113M. Adamus2.0097121162LSep 22 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.4411711113J. Nowak2.63611481WSep 21 · 02:20O. Sokolowski1.805950J. Nowak1.901111113LSep 21 · 01:35S. Szostok1.511111143J. Nowak2.4089120WSep 20 · 23:35M. Sikon1.80615111182J. Nowak1.86111767113LSep 20 · 22:50P. Slosarczyk1.90111111113J. Nowak1.80135661LSep 20 · 21:10R. Ogon2.95121111113J. Nowak1.33149991LSep 20 · 20:20O. Sokolowski1.80119145133J. Nowak1.903111211112
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud
J. Nowak
Sep 22 · 21:00J. Nowak2.00M. Adamus1.73—Sep 22 · 22:10J. Nowak2.75M. Koczyba1.40—Sep 22 · 23:45J. Nowak2.25G. Jurowicz1.57—Sep 23 · 01:00J. Nowak2.20G. Marud1.61—Sep 23 · 02:35J. Nowak2.10L. Oracz1.67—Sep 23 · 21:35J. Nowak—M. Lebek——Sep 23 · 23:10J. Nowak—K. Hetnar——Sep 24 · 24:25J. Nowak—R. Wiza——Sep 24 · 01:35J. Nowak—O. Sokolowski——Sep 24 · 02:45J. Nowak—A. Burkacki——
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