TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Marud vs Mariusz Adamus 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
121012101113116––
Mariusz Adamus
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:25 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Mariusz Adamus below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 85 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Grzegorz Marud at 57.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 23–22 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 22 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:25What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-22 in 45
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1399 vs Adamus 1344
Marud
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 60% vs Adamus 20%
Marud
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 40% vs Adamus 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +1 · Adamus -3
Adamus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.80 / Adamus 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marud)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13169842
Marud1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 133 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it87% 80 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it70% 107 of 152
Adamus1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 20)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog43% won 176 of 414
Down 0–1, comes back21% 46 of 215
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud4wins
AwayAdamus6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud60%3 of 5
AwayAdamus80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Marud7Adamus3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S3Marud6Adamus4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Marud2Adamus6n = 8Adamus took 6 of 8
S5Marud1Adamus3n = 4Adamus took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudAdamusM − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.739.4−0.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime656 / 1377 vs 795 / 162447.6%49%656 / 1377 vs 795 / 1624Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.80/Adamus 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 15:00G. Marud46121211113M. Adamus3910101361
LSep 14 · 03:05G. Marud4011311692M. Adamus49811811113
WSep 13 · 21:05G. Marud331111113M. Adamus176650
LSep 1 · 01:30G. Marud351211391M. Adamus4314711113
WAug 31 · 19:55G. Marud391111173M. Adamus3197150
LJun 17 · 02:00G. Marud359101151M. Adamus4211128113
WJun 16 · 19:10G. Marud47911115113M. Adamus4411581192
LJun 9 · 04:40G. Marud4295111162M. Adamus47111177113
LJun 8 · 22:40G. Marud4211119292M. Adamus43371111113
LMay 19 · 16:25G. Marud28611471M. Adamus3911611113
G. Marud10
WSep 22 · 05:05G. Marud1.57871111113P. Slosarczyk2.2011119972LSep 22 · 03:30G. Marud2.09111377112S. Szostok1.536111111133WSep 22 · 01:50G. Marud1.751112311113M. Sikon1.9571411762WSep 22 · 24:30G. Marud1.91611911113M. Baron1.7811911882LSep 21 · 23:30G. Marud1.86119951P. Kurek1.6991111113LSep 21 · 22:20M. Baron1.951111113G. Marud1.756950LSep 21 · 21:30S. Szostok1.571115113G. Marud2.0261370LSep 21 · 20:45G. Marud1.541111961P. Slosarczyk2.2513911113WSep 21 · 19:10G. Marud1.861211118113P. Kurek1.8014511152LSep 21 · 18:20M. Sikon2.2081112113G. Marud1.571191061
M. Adamus10
LSep 20 · 08:00K. Juszczyk1.801610119123M. Adamus1.801412811102LSep 20 · 07:10W. Urban1.8311911113M. Adamus1.83911881LSep 20 · 06:25M. Adamus1.91910100W. Pytlas1.801112123WSep 20 · 04:50M. Adamus1.78811111143M. Paszkiewicz1.91111155122LSep 20 · 04:00P. Zemla1.4111128113M. Adamus2.604101131WSep 19 · 10:20M. Adamus1.78311811113R. Wojcik1.9111711952LSep 19 · 09:05M. Adamus1.78891231J. Badura1.93111110113LSep 19 · 07:55M. Adamus1.50612711102O. Sokolowski2.401110116123LSep 19 · 06:45S. Sojka1.851113113M. Adamus1.8081190WSep 19 · 05:55M. Adamus1.5011123113P. Slosarczyk2.158101191
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud
Sep 22 · 16:15G. Marud1.40G. Jurowicz2.75—Sep 22 · 17:45G. Marud1.83M. Koczyba1.83—Sep 22 · 18:55G. Marud1.73J. Nowak2.00—Sep 22 · 20:30G. Marud1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 22 · 21:45G. Marud1.40G. Jurowicz2.75—Sep 22 · 22:35G. Marud1.80M. Adamus1.91—Sep 23 · 24:10G. Marud1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 23 · 01:00G. Marud1.73J. Nowak2.00—Sep 23 · 01:45G. Marud2.00M. Koczyba1.73—
M. Adamus
Sep 22 · 16:35M. Adamus2.00J. Nowak1.73—Sep 22 · 17:20M. Adamus1.61G. Jurowicz2.20—Sep 22 · 19:20M. Adamus1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 22 · 20:05M. Adamus2.10M. Koczyba1.67—Sep 22 · 21:00M. Adamus2.00J. Nowak1.73—Sep 22 · 22:35M. Adamus1.91G. Marud1.80—Sep 22 · 23:20M. Adamus2.10M. Koczyba1.67—Sep 23 · 01:25M. Adamus1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 23 · 02:10M. Adamus1.61G. Jurowicz2.20—Sep 23 · 15:10M. Adamus—R. Wiza——
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