TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Baran vs Mateusz Karpiuk 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Mateusz Baran
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117511511911––
Mateusz Karpiuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMateusz Baran to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Baran above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Mateusz Baran at 55.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Baran 2–6 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Baran has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Karpiuk beat Baran 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:56What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Karpiuk
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baran 1349 vs Karpiuk 1389
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baran 40% vs Karpiuk 80%
Karpiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baran 30% vs Karpiuk 70%
Karpiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baran +1 · Karpiuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karpiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaran 1.83 / Karpiuk 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Karpiuk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13169697
Baran1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Karpiuk1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBaran2wins
AwayKarpiuk6wins
1 of 8 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaran40%2 of 5
AwayKarpiuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baran5Karpiuk3n = 8Baran took 5 of 8
S2Baran0Karpiuk8n = 8Karpiuk took 8 of 8
S3Baran2Karpiuk6n = 8Karpiuk took 6 of 8
S4Baran2Karpiuk4n = 6Karpiuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricBaranKarpiukB − KBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match32.238.5−6.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaranKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 161 vs 136 / 30452.2%44.7%84 / 161 vs 136 / 304Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukBaran 1.83/Karpiuk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 22 · 01:50M. Baran30115591M. Karpiuk4071111113
LSep 21 · 18:10M. Baran217680M. Karpiuk331111113
LSep 16 · 03:55M. Baran238960M. Karpiuk331111113
WSep 15 · 21:55M. Baran3811511113M. Karpiuk34911771
WAug 9 · 21:20M. Baran46116711113M. Karpiuk4361111872
LAug 9 · 15:25M. Baran35138951M. Karpiuk44111111113
LJul 21 · 01:50M. Baran32961161M. Karpiuk4211119113
LJul 20 · 20:05M. Baran33117691M. Karpiuk3961111113
M. Baran10
WSep 22 · 24:30M. Baran2.0011711113M. Lewczuk1.73911981LSep 21 · 23:30M. Baran2.7513770A. Zmijewski1.401511113LSep 21 · 22:10M. Baran2.38910100K. Kwiatkowski1.531112123LSep 21 · 21:00M. Baran2.38511681J. Zelezik1.5311811113WSep 21 · 19:40K. Kwiatkowski1.5091181272M. Baran2.501161110113LSep 21 · 18:55M. Lewczuk1.7312311113M. Baran2.001011651LSep 21 · 18:10M. Baran1.677680M. Karpiuk2.101111113WSep 21 · 16:35M. Baran2.381111113J. Zelezik1.532690LSep 21 · 15:50A. Zmijewski1.531111113M. Baran2.388730LSep 18 · 02:35M. Baran1.91961281K. Gudzik1.80111110113
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 22 · 24:50M. Karpiuk3.0011712113J. Zelezik1.369111091LSep 21 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.4431112113M. Karpiuk2.631161041WSep 21 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.2548111182M. Karpiuk3.75111186113WSep 21 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.61671181M. Karpiuk2.2011119113WSep 21 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.40119111092M. Karpiuk2.75511812113WSep 21 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.2561111113J. Zelezik1.33117861WSep 21 · 18:10M. Baran1.677680M. Karpiuk2.101111113LSep 21 · 16:55A. Zmijewski1.22101114113M. Karpiuk4.001241251LSep 21 · 15:25K. Kwiatkowski1.57111116113M. Karpiuk2.25791881WSep 16 · 05:05K. Rybak2.27119961M. Karpiuk1.5791111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baran
Sep 22 · 17:30M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 19:10M. Baran—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 19:55M. Baran—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 22 · 21:55M. Baran—M. Karpiuk——Sep 22 · 22:40M. Baran—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 23:30M. Baran—J. Michalik——Sep 23 · 01:10M. Baran—M. Brunner——Sep 23 · 01:55M. Baran—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 23 · 03:55M. Baran—M. Karpiuk——Sep 23 · 04:40M. Baran—K. Delikatny——
M. Karpiuk
Sep 22 · 17:55M. Karpiuk—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 22 · 19:30M. Karpiuk—K. Delikatny——Sep 22 · 20:45M. Karpiuk—P. Gesiarz——Sep 22 · 21:55M. Karpiuk—M. Baran——Sep 22 · 23:05M. Karpiuk—M. Brunner——Sep 22 · 23:55M. Karpiuk—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 23 · 01:30M. Karpiuk—K. Delikatny——Sep 23 · 02:45M. Karpiuk—M. Brunner——Sep 23 · 03:55M. Karpiuk—M. Baran——Sep 23 · 05:05M. Karpiuk—J. Michalik——
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