TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Motacek vs Jakub Horky 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 44 - B4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118411411114116
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Horky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Jakub Horky below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 81 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Jakub Horky at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Horky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1444 vs Horky 1458
Horky
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 20% vs Horky 80%
Horky
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 10% vs Horky 80%
Horky
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek -3 · Horky -1
Motacek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Horky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.833 / Horky 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Horky)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13274490
Motacek1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Horky1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekHorkyBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 84 vs 87 / 16352.4%53.4%44 / 84 vs 87 / 163Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorkyMotacek 1.83/Horky 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Horky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Motacek won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
T. Motacek10
LOct 10 · 18:05T. Motacek1.6781171262J. Martin2.101131110113LOct 9 · 21:05T. Motacek2.103680L. Vosyka1.671111113LOct 9 · 20:05M. Flesar1.801111113T. Motacek1.915940WOct 9 · 19:35J. Kabelka2.10811711T. Motacek1.6711711113LOct 9 · 18:35T. Motacek2.00741181L. Vosyka1.7311116113LOct 9 · 17:17S. Kafka1.141411113T. Motacek5.0012690LOct 9 · 16:05J. Lovl1.5711913113T. Motacek2.256111181LOct 9 · 15:35D. Hons1.911111113T. Motacek1.806870LOct 9 · 14:35T. Motacek2.251110661S. Kafka1.5791211113LOct 3 · 21:40T. Motacek1.5311970L. Vana2.381311113
J. Horky10
LOct 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.831111163J. Horky1.8366140WOct 10 · 17:35J. Horky2.109101111123P. Pesout1.67111278102WOct 10 · 16:05J. Horky1.67811118113P. Pesout2.1011841132WOct 10 · 15:05J. Horky1.50141113123V. Kaisler2.5016311101WOct 10 · 14:05J. Horky1.801112113S. Mezlik1.9161070LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113WAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:05J. Horky1.28711811113R. Jaros3.3511511672WAug 21 · 21:35M. Chmelicek1.738840J. Horky2.001111113
Upcoming Matches
T. Motacek
Nothing scheduled
J. Horky
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