TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs Jakub Horky 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 44 - B4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161161614––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Jakub Horky below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 16-14
Point 64 set 3, 16-14 · our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 4–1 Jakub Horky Jakub Horky has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Horky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Flesar
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1539 vs Horky 1467
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Horky 80%
Horky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 60% vs Horky 90%
Horky
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -2 · Horky +4
Horky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Flesar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.833 / Horky 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Flesar)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13273886
Flesar1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Horky1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeFlesar4wins
AwayHorky1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderFlesar leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar100%4 of 4
AwayHorkyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar4Horky1n = 5Flesar took 4 of 5
S2Flesar4Horky1n = 5Flesar took 4 of 5
S3Flesar4Horky1n = 5Flesar took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricFlesarHorkyF − HBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.826.0+12.8per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarHorkyBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 483 vs 87 / 16252.4%53.7%253 / 483 vs 87 / 162Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.83/Horky 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 2 · 12:35M. Flesar4691341462J. Horky5611111112113
WMay 24 · 11:35M. Flesar331111113J. Horky145720
WApr 11 · 11:35M. Flesar331111113J. Horky61140
WFeb 6 · 11:35M. Flesar46111014113J. Horky337121221
WJan 14 · 11:35M. Flesar361114113J. Horky2151240
M. Flesar10
LOct 10 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.631181111113M. Flesar1.4471181342LOct 10 · 10:35M. Flesar1.835760D. Hons1.831111113WOct 9 · 21:35M. Flesar1.5311116123J. Kabelka2.387511101WOct 9 · 20:05M. Flesar1.801111113T. Motacek1.915940WOct 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.2511101112113L. Vosyka1.5741291492WOct 9 · 18:05M. Flesar1.53111186113J. Kabelka2.3838111142WOct 8 · 21:05M. Flesar—1111113D. Hons—6770LOct 8 · 20:05M. Flesar2.001111117112D. Hons1.73135811133WOct 8 · 19:05M. Flesar1.57119611113M. Chmelicek2.2571111392LOct 8 · 18:05M. Flesar2.00410111392J. Martin1.731112911113
J. Horky10
LOct 10 · 19:05T. Motacek1.83114411113J. Horky1.8381111462WOct 10 · 17:35J. Horky2.109101111123P. Pesout1.67111278102WOct 10 · 16:05J. Horky1.67811118113P. Pesout2.1011841132WOct 10 · 15:05J. Horky1.50141113123V. Kaisler2.5016311101WOct 10 · 14:05J. Horky1.801112113S. Mezlik1.9161070LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113WAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:05J. Horky1.28711811113R. Jaros3.3511511672WAug 21 · 21:35M. Chmelicek1.738840J. Horky2.001111113
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