TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs Jirasek Martin 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
41110121191311911
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:43 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 101 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Jirasek Martin at 60.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 2–6 Jirasek Martin Milan Flesar has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4360.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
clears by 2.6pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Martin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Martin
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1542 vs Martin 1515
Flesar
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 80% vs Martin 60%
Flesar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 60% vs Martin 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -1 · Martin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Martin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.00 / Martin 1.727
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Martin)+2.6pp
TT Cup · #13263629
Flesar2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back21% 19 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 64
Martin1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 40 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeFlesar2wins
AwayMartin6wins
Martin leads 6–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesarn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMartin83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar2Martin6n = 8Martin took 6 of 8
S2Flesar3Martin5n = 8Martin took 5 of 8
S3Flesar2Martin6n = 8Martin took 6 of 8
S4Flesar2Martin3n = 5Martin took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricFlesarMartinF − MBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match28.636.1−7.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 473 vs 78 / 14552.2%53.8%247 / 473 vs 78 / 145Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartinFlesar 2.00/Martin 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 5 · 19:35M. Flesar31135671J. Martin44111111113
WOct 4 · 19:35M. Flesar3811115113J. Martin31941171
LSep 9 · 21:35M. Flesar29551181J. Martin4211119113
LSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar116230J. Martin331111113
LSep 6 · 09:05M. Flesar3088140J. Martin381111163
LSep 6 · 07:35M. Flesar177640J. Martin331111113
LAug 3 · 17:50M. Flesar31511691J. Martin3611311113
WAug 3 · 14:05M. Flesar4291111113J. Martin32119391
M. Flesar10
LOct 6 · 21:39M. Flesar1.831177111T. Krcil1.8321111133WOct 6 · 20:05T. Krcil1.91115912112M. Flesar1.808111110133WOct 6 · 19:35J. Vidourek2.204970M. Flesar1.611111113WOct 6 · 18:35M. Flesar1.6711124113J. Kabelka2.105101191WOct 6 · 17:28M. Flesar1.10111311113J. Manhal Jr6.501311751WOct 6 · 16:35M. Flesar1.911111113J. Manhal Jr1.806550LOct 6 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.4011177113M. Flesar2.755151141LOct 6 · 14:35R. Neterda1.50111511113M. Flesar2.50817571LOct 5 · 21:05M. Flesar2.0067111362D. Hons1.731111511113WOct 5 · 20:05S. Kafka1.5761111492M. Flesar2.25119711113
J. Martin10
WOct 7 · 21:05J. Martin—91111113M. Chmelicek—117151WOct 7 · 20:35J. Martin1.531111113M. Chmelicek2.384380LOct 7 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.8371112113J. Martin1.831191031LOct 7 · 18:35D. Hons1.8311116113J. Martin1.83951191WOct 5 · 21:35J. Martin1.91911118113S. Kafka1.8011891182WOct 5 · 20:35D. Hons1.809111191J. Martin1.9111613113WOct 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.61111111113M. Flesar2.20135671LOct 5 · 18:05S. Kafka1.80711811113J. Martin1.9111911352WOct 4 · 21:10J. Martin1.3311912113J. Kabelka3.259111071WOct 4 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.103670J. Martin1.671111113
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