TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs David Hons 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131151187111113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 101 set 5, 11-13 · our read held David Hons at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 7–10 David Hons Milan Flesar has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0054.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Hons
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1536 vs Hons 1470
Flesar
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Hons 40%
Flesar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 60% vs Hons 40%
Flesar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +1 · Hons -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hons) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.00 / Hons 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hons)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13263876
Flesar2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back21% 19 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 64
Hons1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 62 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it75% 46 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar4wins
AwayHons6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar75%3 of 4
AwayHons83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar4Hons6n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S2Flesar4Hons6n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S3Flesar5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S4Flesar2Hons5n = 7Hons took 5 of 7
S5Flesar2Hons1n = 3Flesar took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarHonsF − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.136.4−0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 475 vs 276 / 55252.2%50%248 / 475 vs 276 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HonsFlesar 2.00/Hons 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 21:05M. Flesar4367111362D. Hons491111511113
WOct 5 · 18:35M. Flesar49612119113D. Hons43111041172
WOct 1 · 21:08M. Flesar45111157113D. Hons4067111152
WOct 1 · 20:05M. Flesar4112711113D. Hons331011751
WSep 28 · 12:35M. Flesar341111123D. Hons1642100
LSep 27 · 20:35M. Flesar259970D. Hons331111113
LSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar1810710D. Hons341211113
LSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar361110961D. Hons3621211113
LSep 16 · 10:35M. Flesar31661181D. Hons4111118113
LSep 15 · 20:35M. Flesar399111091D. Hons3911512113
M. Flesar10
WOct 8 · 19:05M. Flesar1.57119611113M. Chmelicek2.2571111392LOct 8 · 18:05M. Flesar2.00410111392J. Martin1.731112911113LOct 6 · 21:39M. Flesar1.831177111T. Krcil1.8321111133WOct 6 · 20:05T. Krcil1.91115912112M. Flesar1.808111110133WOct 6 · 19:35J. Vidourek2.204970M. Flesar1.611111113WOct 6 · 18:35M. Flesar1.6711124113J. Kabelka2.105101191WOct 6 · 17:28M. Flesar1.10111311113J. Manhal Jr6.501311751WOct 6 · 16:35M. Flesar1.911111113J. Manhal Jr1.806550LOct 6 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.4011177113M. Flesar2.755151141LOct 6 · 14:35R. Neterda1.50111511113M. Flesar2.50817571
D. Hons10
LOct 8 · 19:35J. Martin1.9161111113D. Hons1.80115881LOct 8 · 18:35D. Hons1.4429110M. Chmelicek2.631111133WOct 7 · 21:33L. Vosyka1.91108100D. Hons1.801211123LOct 7 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.9113111111113D. Hons1.8015413782WOct 7 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.389128101D. Hons1.53111011123WOct 7 · 18:35D. Hons1.8311116113J. Martin1.83951191WOct 5 · 21:05M. Flesar2.0067111362D. Hons1.731111511113LOct 5 · 20:35D. Hons1.809111191J. Martin1.9111613113LOct 5 · 19:05S. Kafka1.831111113D. Hons1.836980LOct 5 · 18:35M. Flesar2.10612119113D. Hons1.67111041172
Upcoming Matches
M. Flesar
D. Hons
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.