TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Hons vs Martin Chmelicek 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
2119111113––––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:34 and never touched: 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 57 set 3, 11-13 · our read held David Hons at 68.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 12–7 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:3468.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hons
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Hons
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1501 vs Chmelicek 1310
Hons
Wrong
both rated, 190 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 80% vs Chmelicek 0%
Hons
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 40% vs Chmelicek 10%
Hons
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +1 · Chmelicek -9
Chmelicek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Hons) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.444 / Chmelicek 2.625
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Hons)-1.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13263645
Hons1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 62 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it75% 46 of 61
Chmelicek2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 9
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 74 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons8wins
AwayChmelicek2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHons leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons85.7%6 of 7
AwayChmelicek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons7Chmelicek3n = 10Hons took 7 of 10
S2Hons8Chmelicek2n = 10Hons took 8 of 10
S3Hons6Chmelicek4n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S4Hons3Chmelicek3n = 6split evenly
S5Hons2Chmelicek1n = 3Hons took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsChmelicekH − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.734.0+5.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 550 vs 267 / 57850.2%46.2%276 / 550 vs 267 / 578Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.44/Chmelicek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.1%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 19:35D. Hons44111011123M. Chmelicek399128101
LSep 23 · 15:35D. Hons2899100M. Chmelicek341111123
WSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons49111188113M. Chmelicek4394111182
WSep 18 · 14:35D. Hons391112163M. Chmelicek32810140
WSep 16 · 12:35D. Hons43111110113M. Chmelicek28711281
WSep 12 · 20:35D. Hons331111113M. Chmelicek249690
LAug 7 · 19:35D. Hons3911116652M. Chmelicek47681111113
WJul 18 · 18:05D. Hons331111113M. Chmelicek198830
WJul 18 · 10:05D. Hons3941113113M. Chmelicek291121151
WJun 30 · 15:35D. Hons50811146113M. Chmelicek45116121152
D. Hons10
WOct 7 · 21:33L. Vosyka1.91108100D. Hons1.801211123LOct 7 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.9113111111113D. Hons1.8015413782WOct 7 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.389128101D. Hons1.53111011123WOct 7 · 18:35D. Hons1.8311116113J. Martin1.83951191WOct 5 · 21:05M. Flesar2.0067111362D. Hons1.731111511113LOct 5 · 20:35D. Hons1.809111191J. Martin1.9111613113LOct 5 · 19:05S. Kafka1.831111113D. Hons1.836980LOct 5 · 18:35M. Flesar2.10612119113D. Hons1.67111041172LOct 1 · 21:08M. Flesar2.20111157113D. Hons1.6167111152LOct 1 · 20:05M. Flesar2.2512711113D. Hons1.571011751
M. Chmelicek10
LOct 8 · 19:05M. Flesar1.57119611113M. Chmelicek2.2571111392LOct 8 · 17:10J. Vranca2.3851112113M. Chmelicek1.531181091LOct 8 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.80118951P. Pesout1.9151111113LOct 8 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.7351350S. Mezlik2.001115113LOct 8 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.67111091132J. Vranca2.10512115113LOct 7 · 21:05J. Martin—91111113M. Chmelicek—117151LOct 7 · 20:35J. Martin1.531111113M. Chmelicek2.384380LOct 7 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.389128101D. Hons1.53111011123LOct 7 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.5011117113M. Chmelicek2.50371141LOct 4 · 17:33J. Lovl1.40311911113M. Chmelicek2.7511711562
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