TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Milan Flesar vs Tomas Motacek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 44 - B4 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119114––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 51 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 3–1 Tomas Motacek Tomas Motacek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Flesar
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1533 vs Motacek 1476
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 80% vs Motacek 20%
Flesar
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 70% vs Motacek 40%
Flesar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +3 · Motacek +1
Flesar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Flesar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Motacek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.80 / Motacek 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Flesar)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268260
Flesar1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 76 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it78% 64 of 82
Motacek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog54% won 15 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back40% 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeFlesar3wins
AwayMotacek1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderFlesar leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar66.7%2 of 3
AwayMotacekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar3Motacek1n = 4Flesar took 3 of 4
S2Flesar2Motacek2n = 4split evenly
S3Flesar4Motacek0n = 4Flesar took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricFlesarMotacekF − MBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match41.031.8+9.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime251 / 479 vs 44 / 8152.4%54.3%251 / 479 vs 44 / 81Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.80/Motacek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 1 · 19:05M. Flesar4611811882T. Motacek46711611113
WSep 28 · 15:35M. Flesar331111113T. Motacek208570
WSep 18 · 14:05M. Flesar50891111113T. Motacek4011118642
WAug 28 · 19:05M. Flesar351111133T. Motacek2164110
M. Flesar10
WOct 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.2511101112113L. Vosyka1.5741291492WOct 9 · 18:05M. Flesar1.53111186113J. Kabelka2.3838111142WOct 8 · 21:05M. Flesar—1111113D. Hons—6770LOct 8 · 20:05M. Flesar2.001111117112D. Hons1.73135811133WOct 8 · 19:05M. Flesar1.57119611113M. Chmelicek2.2571111392LOct 8 · 18:05M. Flesar2.00410111392J. Martin1.731112911113LOct 6 · 21:39M. Flesar1.831177111T. Krcil1.8321111133WOct 6 · 20:05T. Krcil1.91115912112M. Flesar1.808111110133WOct 6 · 19:35J. Vidourek2.204970M. Flesar1.611111113WOct 6 · 18:35M. Flesar1.6711124113J. Kabelka2.105101191
T. Motacek10
WOct 9 · 19:35J. Kabelka2.10811711T. Motacek1.6711711113LOct 9 · 18:35T. Motacek2.00741181L. Vosyka1.7311116113LOct 9 · 17:17S. Kafka1.141411113T. Motacek5.0012690LOct 9 · 16:05J. Lovl1.5711913113T. Motacek2.256111181LOct 9 · 15:35D. Hons1.911111113T. Motacek1.806870LOct 9 · 14:35T. Motacek2.251110661S. Kafka1.5791211113LOct 3 · 21:40T. Motacek1.5311970L. Vana2.381311113WOct 3 · 20:05M. Chmelicek2.63111041192T. Motacek1.44512118113WOct 3 · 19:35S. Mezlik3.00412981T. Motacek1.36111011113WOct 3 · 18:35T. Motacek1.6711612133L. Vana2.1051110111
Upcoming Matches
M. Flesar
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