TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Hons vs Tomas Motacek 3-0 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 43 - B3 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118117––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:24 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Tomas Motacek at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 4–3 Tomas Motacek Tomas Motacek has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Motacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1485 vs Motacek 1511
Motacek
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 40% vs Motacek 60%
Motacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 60% vs Motacek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +1 · Motacek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Motacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.909 / Motacek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Motacek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13268504
Hons1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 60 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 47
Motacek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As favourite63% won 26 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHons4wins
AwayMotacek3wins
4 of 7 to a deciderHons leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons50%2 of 4
AwayMotacek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons4Motacek3n = 7Hons took 4 of 7
S2Hons4Motacek3n = 7Hons took 4 of 7
S3Hons2Motacek5n = 7Motacek took 5 of 7
S4Hons5Motacek2n = 7Hons took 5 of 7
S5Hons2Motacek2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricHonsMotacekH − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match43.141.0+2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 555 vs 43 / 7650.1%56.6%278 / 555 vs 43 / 76Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekHons 1.91/Motacek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 1 · 18:35D. Hons50119101192T. Motacek49811127113
WSep 23 · 17:10D. Hons4211119113T. Motacek27451171
LSep 23 · 14:35D. Hons47119111062T. Motacek45611512113
WSep 19 · 21:40D. Hons50119511143T. Motacek49711118122
WSep 19 · 19:35D. Hons481011511113T. Motacek4212611942
WSep 18 · 17:40D. Hons4061111123T. Motacek361196101
LSep 18 · 15:35D. Hons25611621T. Motacek3911611113
D. Hons10
WOct 9 · 16:35S. Kafka1.6711114982D. Hons2.10471111113WOct 9 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5751171172D. Hons2.25115116113LOct 8 · 21:05M. Flesar—1111113D. Hons—6770WOct 8 · 20:05M. Flesar2.001111117112D. Hons1.73135811133LOct 8 · 19:35J. Martin1.9161111113D. Hons1.80115881LOct 8 · 18:35D. Hons1.4429110M. Chmelicek2.631111133WOct 7 · 21:33L. Vosyka1.91108100D. Hons1.801211123LOct 7 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.9113111111113D. Hons1.8015413782WOct 7 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.389128101D. Hons1.53111011123WOct 7 · 18:35D. Hons1.8311116113J. Martin1.83951191
T. Motacek10
LOct 9 · 16:05J. Lovl1.5711913113T. Motacek2.256111181LOct 9 · 14:35T. Motacek2.251110661S. Kafka1.5791211113LOct 3 · 21:40T. Motacek1.5311970L. Vana2.381311113WOct 3 · 20:05M. Chmelicek2.63111041192T. Motacek1.44512118113WOct 3 · 19:35S. Mezlik3.00412981T. Motacek1.36111011113WOct 3 · 18:35T. Motacek1.6711612133L. Vana2.1051110111LOct 2 · 20:05M. Chmelicek2.6331313133T. Motacek1.44111111111WOct 2 · 19:34S. Mezlik1.9112840T. Motacek1.801411113LOct 2 · 18:35T. Motacek1.578770L. Vosyka2.251111113WOct 1 · 21:38T. Motacek1.7311611113L. Vosyka2.00611881
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