TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Hons vs Jan Lovl 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 43 - B3 · Prague
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111188111161012
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:31 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 93 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Jan Lovl at 60.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 7–20 Jan Lovl David Hons has won 7 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Hons beat Lovl 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3160.9%Our read71.9%to break even at 1.39
short by 11.0pp71.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.39 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.39 (66%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-20 in 27
Lovl
Correct
gap of 13 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1513 vs Lovl 1624
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 80% vs Lovl 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 60% vs Lovl 80%
Lovl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +3 · Lovl +2
Hons
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Lovl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 2.75 / Lovl 1.39
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Lovl)-11.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13270351
Hons2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 60 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 47
Lovl1.39
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 72 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it78% 59 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons3wins
AwayLovl7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLovl leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons50%2 of 4
AwayLovl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons4Lovl6n = 10Lovl took 6 of 10
S2Hons5Lovl5n = 10split evenly
S3Hons3Lovl7n = 10Lovl took 7 of 10
S4Hons4Lovl4n = 8split evenly
S5Hons1Lovl3n = 4Lovl took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsLovlH − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.640.5−3.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 557 vs 198 / 37650.3%52.7%280 / 557 vs 198 / 376Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LovlHons 2.75/Lovl 1.39
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 14:05D. Hons44115116113J. Lovl4151171172
LSep 26 · 06:35D. Hons408139101J. Lovl45111111123
LSep 20 · 16:05D. Hons218940J. Lovl331111113
WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons4291111113J. Lovl31116681
LAug 23 · 16:35D. Hons44111111472J. Lovl48761311113
LAug 2 · 15:35D. Hons187740J. Lovl331111113
LAug 1 · 12:05D. Hons3912661142J. Lovl521011119113
LJul 16 · 11:35D. Hons4077111142J. Lovl49111188113
LJun 30 · 17:40D. Hons398118121J. Lovl4011411143
WJun 30 · 16:05D. Hons3911116113J. Lovl33691171
D. Hons10
WOct 9 · 16:35S. Kafka1.6711114982D. Hons2.10471111113WOct 9 · 15:35D. Hons1.911111113T. Motacek1.806870WOct 9 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5751171172D. Hons2.25115116113LOct 8 · 21:05M. Flesar—1111113D. Hons—6770WOct 8 · 20:05M. Flesar2.001111117112D. Hons1.73135811133LOct 8 · 19:35J. Martin1.9161111113D. Hons1.80115881LOct 8 · 18:35D. Hons1.4429110M. Chmelicek2.631111133WOct 7 · 21:33L. Vosyka1.91108100D. Hons1.801211123LOct 7 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.9113111111113D. Hons1.8015413782WOct 7 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.389128101D. Hons1.53111011123
J. Lovl10
WOct 9 · 16:05J. Lovl1.5711913113T. Motacek2.256111181WOct 9 · 15:05J. Lovl1.5371111113S. Kafka2.38115971LOct 9 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5751171172D. Hons2.25115116113WOct 4 · 17:33J. Lovl1.40311911113M. Chmelicek2.7511711562WOct 4 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.8314120J. Lovl1.831111143WOct 4 · 15:35M. Chmelicek1.8011210101J. Lovl1.9171112123WOct 4 · 14:35J. Lovl1.501211113M. Flesar2.5010830WOct 1 · 13:14J. Lovl1.831311113R. Neterda1.8311560WOct 1 · 12:35J. Lovl1.837111211113R. Neterda1.83118101362LOct 1 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.001112113J. Lovl1.7361070
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