TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Tomas Motacek vs Jirasek Martin 2-3 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 44 - B4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111137111210611
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:43 and never touched: 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Motacek above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Tomas Motacek at 54.2%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Motacek 4–1 Jirasek Martin Jirasek Martin has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4354.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Motacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Motacek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Motacek 1452 vs Martin 1523
Martin
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Motacek 20% vs Martin 80%
Martin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Motacek 20% vs Martin 70%
Martin
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Motacek -2 · Martin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Motacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMotacek 1.666 / Martin 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Motacek)-5.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273266
Motacek1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 27 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Martin2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 26 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMotacek4wins
AwayMartin1wins
Motacek leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMotacekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMartin33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Motacek2Martin3n = 5Martin took 3 of 5
S2Motacek5Martin0n = 5Motacek took 5 of 5
S3Motacek4Martin1n = 5Motacek took 4 of 5
S4Motacek2Martin1n = 3Motacek took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMotacekMartinMotacek − MartinBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match37.427.0+10.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMotacekMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime44 / 83 vs 81 / 14953%54.4%44 / 83 vs 81 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekMotacek 1.67/Martin 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.2%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 26 · 16:05T. Motacek331111113J. Martin122460
WSep 19 · 18:05T. Motacek331111113J. Martin124800
WSep 12 · 17:34T. Motacek4291111113J. Martin30119371
WSep 12 · 15:05T. Motacek43101111113J. Martin38128991
LAug 27 · 18:05T. Motacek361011691J. Martin4312911113
T. Motacek10
WOct 10 · 19:05T. Motacek1.83114411113J. Horky1.8381111462LOct 9 · 21:05T. Motacek2.103680L. Vosyka1.671111113LOct 9 · 20:05M. Flesar1.801111113T. Motacek1.915940WOct 9 · 19:35J. Kabelka2.10811711T. Motacek1.6711711113LOct 9 · 18:35T. Motacek2.00741181L. Vosyka1.7311116113LOct 9 · 17:17S. Kafka1.141411113T. Motacek5.0012690LOct 9 · 16:05J. Lovl1.5711913113T. Motacek2.256111181LOct 9 · 15:35D. Hons1.911111113T. Motacek1.806870LOct 9 · 14:35T. Motacek2.251110661S. Kafka1.5791211113LOct 3 · 21:40T. Motacek1.5311970L. Vana2.381311113
J. Martin10
LOct 8 · 21:35J. Martin1.401071181M. Chmelicek2.7512113113WOct 8 · 20:35M. Chmelicek2.751111781J. Martin1.4013911113WOct 8 · 19:35J. Martin1.9161111113D. Hons1.80115881WOct 8 · 18:05M. Flesar2.00410111392J. Martin1.731112911113WOct 7 · 21:05J. Martin—91111113M. Chmelicek—117151WOct 7 · 20:35J. Martin1.531111113M. Chmelicek2.384380LOct 7 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.8371112113J. Martin1.831191031LOct 7 · 18:35D. Hons1.8311116113J. Martin1.83951191WOct 5 · 21:35J. Martin1.91911118113S. Kafka1.8011891182WOct 5 · 20:35D. Hons1.809111191J. Martin1.9111613113
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