TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Chmelicek vs Jirasek Martin 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113119711811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Jirasek Martin at 69.5%
81 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 5–8 Jirasek Martin Martin Chmelicek has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:3069.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Martin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Martin
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1327 vs Martin 1536
Martin
Correct
both rated, 210 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 20% vs Martin 80%
Martin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 10% vs Martin 70%
Martin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -1 · Martin +4
Martin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Martin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 2.75 / Martin 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Martin)-1.9pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13264217
Chmelicek2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 74 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 72
Martin1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 40 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek3wins
AwayMartin7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMartin leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek50%2 of 4
AwayMartin83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek4Martin6n = 10Martin took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek3Martin7n = 10Martin took 7 of 10
S3Chmelicek2Martin8n = 10Martin took 8 of 10
S4Chmelicek4Martin2n = 6Chmelicek took 4 of 6
S5Chmelicek2Martin2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekMartinC − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.838.5−4.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 580 vs 80 / 14746.2%54.4%268 / 580 vs 80 / 147Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartinChmelicek 2.75/Martin 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 21:05M. Chmelicek24117151J. Martin4291111113
LOct 7 · 20:35M. Chmelicek154380J. Martin331111113
LOct 4 · 06:35M. Chmelicek207490J. Martin331111113
WSep 26 · 15:05M. Chmelicek45811411113J. Martin4411511892
LSep 24 · 21:33M. Chmelicek48119513102J. Martin549111111123
LSep 24 · 19:35M. Chmelicek28811721J. Martin3611311113
LSep 23 · 21:45M. Chmelicek4999111192J. Martin41111126113
WSep 23 · 18:35M. Chmelicek52119813113J. Martin44811111132
WSep 19 · 21:10M. Chmelicek341112113J. Martin2581070
LSep 19 · 19:05M. Chmelicek235990J. Martin331111113
M. Chmelicek10
WOct 8 · 21:35J. Martin1.401071181M. Chmelicek2.7512113113LOct 8 · 19:05M. Flesar1.57119611113M. Chmelicek2.2571111392WOct 8 · 18:35D. Hons1.4429110M. Chmelicek2.631111133LOct 8 · 17:10J. Vranca2.3851112113M. Chmelicek1.531181091LOct 8 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.80118951P. Pesout1.9151111113LOct 8 · 15:05M. Chmelicek1.7351350S. Mezlik2.001115113LOct 8 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.67111091132J. Vranca2.10512115113LOct 7 · 21:05J. Martin—91111113M. Chmelicek—117151LOct 7 · 20:35J. Martin1.531111113M. Chmelicek2.384380LOct 7 · 19:35M. Chmelicek2.389128101D. Hons1.53111011123
J. Martin10
LOct 8 · 21:35J. Martin1.401071181M. Chmelicek2.7512113113WOct 8 · 19:35J. Martin1.9161111113D. Hons1.80115881WOct 8 · 18:05M. Flesar2.00410111392J. Martin1.731112911113WOct 7 · 21:05J. Martin—91111113M. Chmelicek—117151WOct 7 · 20:35J. Martin1.531111113M. Chmelicek2.384380LOct 7 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.8371112113J. Martin1.831191031LOct 7 · 18:35D. Hons1.8311116113J. Martin1.83951191WOct 5 · 21:35J. Martin1.91911118113S. Kafka1.8011891182WOct 5 · 20:35D. Hons1.809111191J. Martin1.9111613113WOct 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.61111111113M. Flesar2.20135671
Upcoming Matches
M. Chmelicek
J. Martin
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