TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Dedek vs Lukas Babicka 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191412911118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Babicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Lukas Babicka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 85 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Lukas Babicka at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Dedek 6–7 Lukas Babicka Jiri Dedek has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Babicka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1451 vs Babicka 1503
Babicka
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 60% vs Babicka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 50% vs Babicka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek +2 · Babicka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Babicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 1.909 / Babicka 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Babicka)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268955
Dedek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 85 of 222
Down 0–1, comes back21% 29 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 76
Babicka1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek4wins
AwayBabicka6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBabicka leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedek40%2 of 5
AwayBabicka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek5Babicka5n = 10split evenly
S2Dedek4Babicka6n = 10Babicka took 6 of 10
S3Dedek7Babicka3n = 10Dedek took 7 of 10
S4Dedek2Babicka5n = 7Babicka took 5 of 7
S5Dedek1Babicka2n = 3Babicka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekBabickaD − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.236.6−1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekBabickaBasisWin rate · lifetime506 / 991 vs 63 / 12751.1%49.6%506 / 991 vs 63 / 127Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BabickaDedek 1.91/Babicka 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Babicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 12:30J. Dedek30981121L. Babicka4211119113
LSep 10 · 03:30J. Dedek44116111152L. Babicka48611137113
WSep 9 · 23:30J. Dedek48611128113L. Babicka48118101182
WAug 9 · 03:30J. Dedek331111113L. Babicka189630
LAug 9 · 01:30J. Dedek361196101L. Babicka4171111123
WJul 15 · 12:00J. Dedek331111113L. Babicka189270
LJul 12 · 03:30J. Dedek25541151L. Babicka4011117113
LJul 12 · 01:00J. Dedek165380L. Babicka331111113
LJun 30 · 22:30J. Dedek49111111972L. Babicka45313711113
WMay 8 · 01:00J. Dedek3851111113L. Babicka33118771
J. Dedek10
WOct 10 · 19:00J. Dedek1.6761111123L. Krok2.101157101WOct 10 · 18:00K. Darin1.671312531J. Dedek2.10151011113LOct 10 · 02:30J. Dedek1.7366110T. Dousa2.001111133LOct 10 · 01:30K. Darin1.611111113J. Dedek2.207440WOct 10 · 00:00J. Dedek1.531111113A. Svoboda2.388750LOct 9 · 23:00A. Mikuska2.2011116133J. Dedek1.617211111LOct 9 · 21:30J. Dedek1.8011850A. Svoboda1.901311113WOct 9 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.38114751J. Dedek1.5391111113WOct 9 · 19:30J. Dedek1.671111113K. Novak2.109960LOct 9 · 18:30A. Svoboda3.00911411113J. Dedek1.3611611982
L. Babicka10
LOct 10 · 21:00L. Krok1.5721111113L. Babicka2.25117531WOct 10 · 19:30L. Babicka2.10111198113K. Darin1.6786111192LOct 10 · 18:30L. Krok1.731711113L. Babicka2.0015620WSep 21 · 17:30J. Plachy1.91511891L. Babicka1.8011311113LSep 21 · 16:30Y. Holovatiuk1.5381111113L. Babicka2.38115861WSep 21 · 15:30L. Babicka1.9111146113J. Plachy1.809121161WSep 21 · 14:30K. Darin1.73118861L. Babicka2.0081111113LSep 21 · 13:28J. Plachy1.8011101111113L. Babicka1.9113126462WSep 21 · 12:30J. Dedek1.73981121L. Babicka2.0011119113WSep 21 · 11:30L. Babicka2.001111113K. Darin1.736980
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