TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adam Svoboda vs Jiri Dedek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116411119118
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:03 and never touched: 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeJiri Dedek to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Adam Svoboda @ 3.00 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Jiri Dedek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Jiri Dedek at 64.4%
91 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 0–2 Jiri Dedek Adam Svoboda has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 18:03Sent to Pro: Adam Svoboda @ 3.00 · Lost
64.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 9.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Dedek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1550 vs Dedek 1418
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 131 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 60% vs Dedek 20%
Svoboda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Dedek 30%
Svoboda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -1 · Dedek -4
Dedek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Dedek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dedek form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 3.00 / Dedek 1.363
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Dedek)-9.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264057
Svoboda3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Dedek1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 08)
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 136 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it97% 74 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSvoboda0wins
AwayDedek2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderDedek leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricSvobodaDedekS − DBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match33.541.0−7.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaDedekBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 402 vs 502 / 98653.7%50.9%216 / 402 vs 502 / 986Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 3.00/Dedek 1.36
Miss
What we said
64.4%
Dedek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Adam Svoboda @ 3.00 · Lost
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 11 · 13:30A. Svoboda217950J. Dedek331111113
LSep 11 · 12:00A. Svoboda46411911112J. Dedek49117117133
A. Svoboda10
WOct 9 · 20:00K. Novak1.578270A. Svoboda2.251111113LOct 9 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk1.44118114113A. Svoboda2.6361181152LOct 8 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.48119611142M. Stefek2.45511115163WOct 8 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.44911811113M. Stefek2.6311911692WOct 8 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.635124101A. Svoboda1.44111011123WOct 8 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.171112113R. Hasmanda4.5091060LOct 8 · 09:30T. Andrle1.9014911133A. Svoboda1.8012114111LOct 8 · 08:00J. Jnr1.5341111113A. Svoboda2.38114581WOct 8 · 07:00M. Smrcek2.636860A. Svoboda1.441111113WOct 8 · 06:30A. Svoboda2.2571111113T. Andrle1.57116991
J. Dedek10
WOct 9 · 19:30J. Dedek1.671111113K. Novak2.109960LOct 8 · 12:58J. Prokupek1.8011611113J. Dedek1.91611681LOct 8 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.6111911113J. Dedek2.20411571LOct 8 · 11:00K. Darin1.80961111113J. Dedek1.9111117582LOct 8 · 10:30J. Dedek2.10513100J. Prokupek1.671115123WOct 7 · 21:03J. Dedek1.911191111113J. Plachy1.8061151342WOct 7 · 20:30J. Dedek2.50711116113J. Plachy1.5011761132LOct 7 · 19:00J. Dedek2.501111891M. Vedmoch1.5013911113LOct 7 · 18:00J. Prokupek1.831112113J. Dedek1.8341030WOct 6 · 02:30K. Darin1.801111117112J. Dedek1.91613511133
Upcoming Matches
A. Svoboda
J. Dedek
Oct 9 · 20:30J. Dedek1.53Y. Holovatiuk2.38—Oct 9 · 23:00J. Dedek1.61A. Mikuska2.20—Oct 10 · 00:00J. Dedek1.36A. Svoboda3.00—Oct 10 · 01:30J. Dedek2.20K. Darin1.61—Oct 10 · 02:30J. Dedek1.73T. Dousa2.00—Oct 10 · 18:00J. Dedek1.91K. Darin1.80—Oct 10 · 19:00J. Dedek1.61L. Krok2.20—Oct 10 · 20:30J. Dedek1.91L. Babicka1.80—
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