TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adam Svoboda vs Martin Stefek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911119811116119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:55 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Adam Svoboda at 67.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 11–12 Martin Stefek Adam Svoboda has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5567.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1557 vs Stefek 1433
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 60% vs Stefek 80%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 70% vs Stefek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +2 · Stefek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.444 / Stefek 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Svoboda)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13259199
Svoboda1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 85 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it91% 58 of 64
Stefek2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 181 of 420
Down 0–1, comes back22% 49 of 228
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda7wins
AwayStefek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda100%4 of 4
AwayStefek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S2Svoboda8Stefek2n = 10Svoboda took 8 of 10
S3Svoboda8Stefek2n = 10Svoboda took 8 of 10
S4Svoboda4Stefek3n = 7Svoboda took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaStefekSvoboda − StefekBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.234.2+6.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 400 vs 631 / 130053.8%48.5%215 / 400 vs 631 / 1300Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.44/Stefek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 08:30A. Svoboda4491112123M. Stefek3811710101
WSep 14 · 09:00A. Svoboda331111113M. Stefek188730
LSep 14 · 07:00A. Svoboda29413751M. Stefek44111111113
LSep 10 · 12:00A. Svoboda5210101111102M. Stefek49121267123
WSep 10 · 08:00A. Svoboda331111113M. Stefek153930
WSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda341111123M. Stefek2459100
WSep 6 · 15:30A. Svoboda3741111113M. Stefek34119771
LSep 4 · 22:30A. Svoboda429101491M. Stefek46111212113
WSep 4 · 21:29A. Svoboda4291111113M. Stefek29117741
WSep 4 · 19:00A. Svoboda561111149113M. Stefek4585161152
A. Svoboda10
WOct 8 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.635124101A. Svoboda1.44111011123WOct 8 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.171112113R. Hasmanda4.5091060LOct 8 · 09:30T. Andrle1.9014911133A. Svoboda1.8012114111LOct 8 · 08:00J. Jnr1.5341111113A. Svoboda2.38114581WOct 8 · 07:00M. Smrcek2.636860A. Svoboda1.441111113WOct 8 · 06:30A. Svoboda2.2571111113T. Andrle1.57116991WOct 7 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.4481111113F. Briza2.63113721LOct 7 · 01:30A. Svoboda2.10961111102A. Mikuska1.67111177123WOct 7 · 00:30F. Briza2.501011571A. Svoboda1.5012611113WOct 6 · 23:30V. Postelt1.611258101A. Svoboda2.20101111123
M. Stefek10
WOct 8 · 11:00R. Hasmanda2.008121051M. Stefek1.73111012113LOct 8 · 10:30M. Stefek2.2571131162V. Dolezal1.57113116113WOct 6 · 21:30M. Stefek1.651111113T. Regner2.108880WOct 6 · 20:00J. Moravek1.5010780M. Stefek2.501211113WOct 6 · 19:00T. Regner1.8311811522M. Stefek1.83511911113WOct 6 · 18:30M. Stefek1.401111143J. Framberk2.7578120LOct 6 · 03:30R. Bartunek1.401111113M. Stefek2.757870WOct 6 · 02:00M. Stefek1.731411163123L. Sulava2.001661411102LOct 6 · 01:00M. Stefek2.63119116122R. Bartunek1.44911811143WOct 6 · 00:00T. Regner1.83111161182M. Stefek1.83613114113
Upcoming Matches
A. Svoboda
M. Stefek
Oct 8 · 14:30M. Stefek2.75M. Fisera1.40—Oct 8 · 15:30M. Stefek2.63D. Barton1.44—Oct 8 · 16:30M. Stefek1.83J. Didi1.83—Oct 9 · 18:00M. Stefek—R. Bartunek——Oct 9 · 19:00M. Stefek—J. Kucharcik——Oct 9 · 20:30M. Stefek1.83J. Didi1.83—Oct 9 · 23:00M. Stefek—M. Novotny——Oct 10 · 00:00M. Stefek—M. Novak——Oct 10 · 01:30M. Stefek—R. Urban——Oct 10 · 02:30M. Stefek—M. Necas——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.