TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Frantisek Briza vs Adam Svoboda 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012116511711––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:26 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Briza above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Adam Svoboda at 66.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Briza 10–13 Adam Svoboda Frantisek Briza has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:2666.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 0.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Briza 1370 vs Svoboda 1553
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Briza 40% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Briza 40% vs Svoboda 90%
Svoboda
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Briza +2 · Svoboda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBriza 2.50 / Svoboda 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Svoboda)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13249269
Briza2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 79 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back23% 31 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 73
Svoboda1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 86 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it94% 51 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it90% 60 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBriza1wins
AwaySvoboda9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBriza0%0 of 4
AwaySvoboda83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Briza4Svoboda6n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S2Briza4Svoboda6n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S3Briza4Svoboda6n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S4Briza1Svoboda7n = 8Svoboda took 7 of 8
S5Briza1Svoboda4n = 5Svoboda took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrizaSvobodaB − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.043.0−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrizaSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 816 vs 209 / 39145%53.5%367 / 816 vs 209 / 391Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaBriza 2.50/Svoboda 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 13:30F. Briza33167100A. Svoboda411811123
LOct 4 · 10:00F. Briza4111117572A. Svoboda46851111113
LOct 4 · 09:28F. Briza24411631A. Svoboda3911611113
LOct 4 · 06:30F. Briza112450A. Svoboda331111113
LOct 3 · 10:30F. Briza41111011272A. Svoboda52912911113
LSep 27 · 12:58F. Briza33118771A. Svoboda3961111113
LSep 27 · 12:30F. Briza4113101171A. Svoboda4515127113
WSep 27 · 08:30F. Briza48811117113A. Svoboda4111481172
LSep 18 · 22:00F. Briza4271111762A. Svoboda44112911113
LSep 18 · 14:30F. Briza46115811112A. Svoboda50611119133
F. Briza10
WOct 6 · 23:00F. Briza2.501111113A. Mikuska1.505660WOct 6 · 22:00V. Postelt1.2891040F. Briza3.501112113LOct 6 · 16:58T. Kolenic1.80119911133F. Briza1.91711116112LOct 6 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.731115113F. Briza2.0021360LOct 6 · 15:30F. Briza2.637111181Y. Holovatiuk1.4411139113LOct 6 · 14:30T. Dousa1.4481113113F. Briza2.631171161LOct 4 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.531811123F. Briza2.38167100WOct 4 · 12:30F. Briza2.00111198133T. Kolenic1.73521111112WOct 4 · 11:00F. Briza2.201511113D. Horak1.6113860LOct 4 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.61851111113F. Briza2.2011117572
A. Svoboda10
LOct 7 · 01:30A. Svoboda2.10961111102A. Mikuska1.67111177123WOct 6 · 23:30V. Postelt1.611258101A. Svoboda2.20101111123LOct 6 · 22:30A. Svoboda1.6141111982M. Kolar2.20114811113WOct 5 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.9531111113M. Svedik1.75119961WOct 5 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.531211113T. Nohejl2.3810770WOct 5 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.63491181A. Svoboda1.4411113113WOct 5 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.501111143M. Svedik2.5077120WOct 5 · 09:30A. Svoboda1.281111113L. Havel3.503550WOct 4 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.531811123F. Briza2.38167100WOct 4 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.61851111113F. Briza2.2011117572
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