TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adam Svoboda vs Tomas Nohejl 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 16
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Tomas Nohejl below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Adam Svoboda at 61.6%
58 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 2–1 Tomas Nohejl Tomas Nohejl has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Svoboda beat Nohejl 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5961.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1543 vs Nohejl 1439
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 100% vs Nohejl 20%
Svoboda
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 100% vs Nohejl 40%
Svoboda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +16 · Nohejl +1
Svoboda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Svoboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nohejl form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.533 / Nohejl 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Svoboda)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13244012
Svoboda1.53
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 16
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 79 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it89% 54 of 61
Nohejl2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 14 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back33% 6 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSvoboda2wins
AwayNohejl1wins
Svoboda leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda2Nohejl1n = 3Svoboda took 2 of 3
S2Svoboda3Nohejl0n = 3Svoboda took 3 of 3
S3Svoboda2Nohejl1n = 3Svoboda took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSvobodaNohejlS − NBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match34.727.7+7.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaNohejlBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 387 vs 119 / 21653.2%55.1%206 / 387 vs 119 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.53/Nohejl 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 5 · 08:00A. Svoboda341112113T. Nohejl1851030
LSep 28 · 09:30A. Svoboda34911861T. Nohejl3711411113
WSep 28 · 07:30A. Svoboda361111143T. Nohejl2897120
A. Svoboda10
WOct 5 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.63491181A. Svoboda1.4411113113WOct 5 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.501111143M. Svedik2.5077120WOct 5 · 09:30A. Svoboda1.281111113L. Havel3.503550WOct 5 · 08:00T. Nohejl2.2051030A. Svoboda1.611112113WOct 5 · 07:00L. Havel2.507980A. Svoboda1.501111113WOct 5 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.4081111123V. Dolezal2.751184101WOct 4 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.531811123F. Briza2.38167100WOct 4 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.611210123113D. Horak2.201012101152WOct 4 · 11:30T. Kolenic1.67119881A. Svoboda2.1081111113WOct 4 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.61851111113F. Briza2.2011117572
T. Nohejl10
WOct 5 · 11:00M. Svedik1.8311991162T. Nohejl1.83711117113LOct 5 · 10:30T. Nohejl1.6711891182V. Dolezal2.10311118113LOct 5 · 08:58V. Dolezal1.91111011113T. Nohejl1.80312781LOct 5 · 08:00T. Nohejl2.2051030A. Svoboda1.611112113LOct 5 · 07:30V. Dolezal2.008111111113T. Nohejl1.7311613362LOct 5 · 06:00T. Nohejl1.44117621L. Havel2.6391111113WSep 28 · 09:30A. Svoboda1.43911861T. Nohejl2.6011411113WSep 28 · 08:00T. Nohejl1.8011613123J. Moravek1.9181111101LSep 28 · 07:30A. Svoboda1.911111143T. Nohejl1.8097120WSep 28 · 06:00T. Nohejl1.4411128113M. Stefek2.637101121
Upcoming Matches
A. Svoboda
T. Nohejl
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