TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adam Svoboda vs Vaclav Dolezal 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111181141210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:25 and never touched: 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Adam Svoboda at 67.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 12–7 Vaclav Dolezal Vaclav Dolezal has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2567.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1507 vs Dolezal 1405
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 100% vs Dolezal 40%
Svoboda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 100% vs Dolezal 50%
Svoboda
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +10 · Dolezal +2
Svoboda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.40 / Dolezal 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Svoboda)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13242914
Svoboda1.40
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 79 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it89% 54 of 61
Dolezal2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 04)
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog27% won 30 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda7wins
AwayDolezal3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda80%4 of 5
AwayDolezal40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda5Dolezal5n = 10split evenly
S2Svoboda5Dolezal5n = 10split evenly
S3Svoboda2Dolezal8n = 10Dolezal took 8 of 10
S4Svoboda8Dolezal0n = 8Svoboda took 8 of 8
S5Svoboda3Dolezal1n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaDolezalS − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.438.4+2.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 383 vs 394 / 78452.7%50.3%202 / 383 vs 394 / 784Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.40/Dolezal 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:30A. Svoboda4281111123V. Dolezal331184101
WSep 16 · 01:00A. Svoboda4211119113V. Dolezal29561171
LSep 10 · 11:30A. Svoboda47119511112V. Dolezal48811115133
WSep 10 · 09:30A. Svoboda47111114113V. Dolezal39981661
LSep 10 · 06:30A. Svoboda2010550V. Dolezal341211113
WSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda45711511113V. Dolezal4211611862
WSep 5 · 00:00A. Svoboda3911611113V. Dolezal34911861
WSep 4 · 18:30A. Svoboda599111413123V. Dolezal531151611102
WAug 23 · 13:00A. Svoboda46115811113V. Dolezal3981111452
LAug 23 · 10:00A. Svoboda175480V. Dolezal331111113
A. Svoboda10
WOct 5 · 08:00T. Nohejl2.2051030A. Svoboda1.611112113WOct 5 · 07:00L. Havel2.507980A. Svoboda1.501111113WOct 4 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.531811123F. Briza2.38167100WOct 4 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.611210123113D. Horak2.201012101152WOct 4 · 11:30T. Kolenic1.67119881A. Svoboda2.1081111113WOct 4 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.61851111113F. Briza2.2011117572WOct 4 · 09:28A. Svoboda1.5011611113F. Briza2.50411631WOct 4 · 08:00D. Horak2.2012157762A. Svoboda1.6110131111113WOct 4 · 07:00M. Kolar1.834650A. Svoboda1.831111113WOct 4 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.731111113F. Briza2.002450
V. Dolezal10
WOct 5 · 07:30V. Dolezal2.008111111113T. Nohejl1.7311613362WOct 4 · 02:58M. Smrcek1.367114111V. Dolezal3.0011011133WOct 4 · 02:00V. Dolezal1.441111113L. Sulava2.633760LOct 4 · 01:00V. Dolezal1.5759111192M. Stefek2.25111182113LOct 4 · 00:00M. Smrcek1.441111113V. Dolezal2.638740LOct 3 · 22:30R. Bartunek2.2081111133V. Dolezal1.611175111LOct 1 · 03:30V. Dolezal1.5813115572J. Briska2.201181111113WOct 1 · 02:00J. Framberk3.2510680V. Dolezal1.331211113LOct 1 · 00:30V. Dolezal1.6171112111J. Briska2.20111310133WSep 30 · 23:00V. Dolezal1.571111113M. Stefek2.257670
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