TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Dolezal vs Lubor Sulava 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113117116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:35 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Dolezal above · Lubor Sulava below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 66.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Dolezal 48–12 Lubor Sulava Lubor Sulava has won 12 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:3566.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dolezal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
48-12 in 60
Dolezal
Correct
gap of 36 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1389 vs Sulava 1324
Dolezal
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 20% vs Sulava 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 50% vs Sulava 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal -4 · Sulava -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Dolezal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulava form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 1.444 / Sulava 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Dolezal)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233229
Dolezal1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 139 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it94% 67 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it83% 104 of 125
Sulava2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 59 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back14% 15 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDolezal7wins
AwaySulava3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDolezal leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezal100%6 of 6
AwaySulava75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal6Sulava4n = 10Dolezal took 6 of 10
S2Dolezal5Sulava5n = 10split evenly
S3Dolezal5Sulava5n = 10split evenly
S4Dolezal4Sulava4n = 8split evenly
S5Dolezal3Sulava0n = 3Dolezal took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDolezalSulavaD − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.837.6+1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalSulavaBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 781 vs 467 / 94250.2%49.6%392 / 781 vs 467 / 942Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalDolezal 1.44/Sulava 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 02:00V. Dolezal331111113L. Sulava163760
WSep 28 · 08:00V. Dolezal49811118113L. Sulava4311851182
LSep 10 · 08:30V. Dolezal141940L. Sulava331111113
WAug 27 · 22:30V. Dolezal3911611113L. Sulava34611891
WAug 13 · 07:00V. Dolezal56119619113L. Sulava54811111772
WAug 8 · 01:30V. Dolezal491110116113L. Sulava4771291182
LAug 5 · 13:29V. Dolezal313711101L. Sulava4011116123
WAug 5 · 11:30V. Dolezal4211119113L. Sulava32981141
WJun 30 · 09:00V. Dolezal4312128113L. Sulava4010101191
LJun 30 · 06:00V. Dolezal32811761L. Sulava3711411113
V. Dolezal10
WOct 4 · 02:58M. Smrcek1.367114111V. Dolezal3.0011011133LOct 4 · 01:00V. Dolezal1.5759111192M. Stefek2.25111182113LOct 4 · 00:00M. Smrcek1.441111113V. Dolezal2.638740LOct 3 · 22:30R. Bartunek2.2081111133V. Dolezal1.611175111LOct 1 · 03:30V. Dolezal1.5813115572J. Briska2.201181111113WOct 1 · 02:00J. Framberk3.2510680V. Dolezal1.331211113LOct 1 · 00:30V. Dolezal1.6171112111J. Briska2.20111310133WSep 30 · 23:00V. Dolezal1.571111113M. Stefek2.257670WSep 30 · 22:00M. Novak1.80581181V. Dolezal1.9111115113WSep 30 · 21:30V. Dolezal1.2511119113J. Framberk3.30781161
L. Sulava10
LOct 4 · 00:30L. Sulava3.006460R. Bartunek1.361111113LOct 3 · 23:00L. Sulava2.50911781M. Smrcek1.5011811113LOct 3 · 22:00M. Stefek1.8011118123L. Sulava1.912911101WSep 28 · 09:00L. Sulava2.25115119113J. Briska1.5761111192LSep 28 · 08:00V. Dolezal1.44811118113L. Sulava2.6311851182WSep 28 · 07:00J. Strnad1.831110851L. Sulava1.8331211113LSep 28 · 06:30L. Sulava2.1089111472J. Briska1.671111612113LSep 27 · 09:29L. Sulava1.6791080J. Strnad2.101112113WSep 27 · 08:00J. Strnad1.8375100L. Sulava1.831111123WSep 27 · 07:00V. Hruska Sr2.38813971L. Sulava1.53111111113
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