Martin Novak vs Vaclav Dolezal 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga Pro

Played Sep 30Finished

Martin Novak

Home

1.80

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

511811115811––

Vaclav Dolezal

Away

1.91

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:48 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Martin Novak to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMartin Novak above · Vaclav Dolezal below

Set 1 · 5-11

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 11-5

Set 4 · 8-11

Point 70 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Martin Novak at 54.0%

70 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 21:48

54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.6pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Novak

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Novak 1428 vs Dolezal 1408

Novak

Wrong

both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Novak 60% vs Dolezal 80%

Dolezal

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Novak 60% vs Dolezal 70%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Novak -1 · Dolezal +4

Dolezal

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Novak) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Dolezal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNovak 1.80 / Dolezal 1.909

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Novak)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Czech Liga Pro · #13215749

Novak1.80

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 25)

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As favourite67% won 26 of 39

Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13

Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17

Dolezal1.91

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 4

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog25% won 31 of 122

Down 0–1, comes back17% 13 of 78

Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 47

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricNovakDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 71 vs 393 / 78060.6%50.4%43 / 71 vs 393 / 780Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Novak

Novak 1.80/Dolezal 1.91

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Novak · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Dolezal won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

M. Novak10