TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Stefek vs Martin Novak 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412119116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Novak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Martin Novak below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 63 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Martin Novak at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 1–1 Martin Novak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Novak beat Stefek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:15What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1417 vs Novak 1444
Novak
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Novak 80%
Novak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 70% vs Novak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +1 · Novak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.77 / Novak 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stefek)+1.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13192634
Stefek1.77
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 119 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it77% 86 of 112
Novak1.93
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog52% won 11 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back31% 4 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStefek1wins
AwayNovak1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStefekNovakS − NBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match47.041.5+5.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekNovakBasisWin rate · lifetime605 / 1257 vs 43 / 7048.1%61.4%605 / 1257 vs 43 / 70Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.77/Novak 1.93
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 25 · 01:30M. Stefek51121111982M. Novak51148711113
WSep 16 · 23:00M. Stefek43111110113M. Novak32961251
M. Stefek10
WSep 25 · 02:30M. Stefek1.40122199113J. Strnad2.751019111192LSep 25 · 01:30M. Novak2.00148711113M. Stefek1.73121111982WSep 25 · 24:00M. Stefek1.8011311173L. Sulava1.915118151WSep 24 · 23:00A. Schneeberger1.50111011692M. Stefek2.50712611113LSep 23 · 03:30R. Bartunek1.681113113M. Stefek2.0581150WSep 23 · 02:00M. Stefek1.4461111113J. Strnad2.63119861LSep 23 · 01:00M. Stefek2.501111891R. Bartunek1.5013511113WSep 23 · 24:00V. Dolezal1.44891191M. Stefek2.6311113113WSep 22 · 22:30T. Regner1.73101111992M. Stefek2.00127711113WSep 22 · 13:30V. Sr2.457141131M. Stefek1.4811169113
M. Novak10
WSep 25 · 01:30M. Novak2.00148711113M. Stefek1.73121111982WSep 25 · 24:30A. Schneeberger2.0010690M. Novak1.731211113LSep 24 · 23:30J. Strnad3.001111113M. Novak1.368950WSep 24 · 22:30M. Novak1.57611611113L. Sulava2.2511811682WSep 17 · 02:58M. Novak1.577111111114J. Framberk2.251149471WSep 17 · 02:30M. Novak1.83411511113R. Hasmanda1.8311911872LSep 17 · 01:30T. Regner1.67119118113M. Novak2.1091181192WSep 17 · 24:00M. Novak1.6191111113J. Framberk2.20116281LSep 16 · 23:00M. Stefek2.00111110113M. Novak1.73961251LSep 9 · 03:00M. Novak1.679127111R. Hasmanda2.10111011133
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