TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Regner vs Martin Stefek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Tomas Regner
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012117117911911
Martin Stefek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Regner to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Regner above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Regner at 54.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Regner 24–24 Martin Stefek Dead even across their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-24 in 48
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1378 vs Stefek 1377
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 80% vs Stefek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 70% vs Stefek 40%
Regner
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +3 · Stefek +2
Regner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Regner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.73 / Stefek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Regner)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13170028
Regner1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 95 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it87% 39 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it70% 64 of 92
Stefek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 176 of 412
Down 0–1, comes back22% 49 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner4wins
AwayStefek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner40%2 of 5
AwayStefek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S2Regner7Stefek3n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S3Regner6Stefek4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S4Regner2Stefek5n = 7Stefek took 5 of 7
S5Regner1Stefek4n = 5Stefek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerStefekR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.738.4+2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime494 / 999 vs 600 / 124949.5%48%494 / 999 vs 600 / 1249Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.73/Stefek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 22:30T. Regner50101111992M. Stefek48127711113
WSep 21 · 02:58T. Regner351311113M. Stefek2511680
WSep 21 · 02:30T. Regner48514117113M. Stefek40111221142
LSep 17 · 03:28T. Regner3711118342M. Stefek45481111113
WSep 17 · 24:30T. Regner4391111123M. Stefek361178101
LSep 14 · 22:00T. Regner2988130M. Stefek371111153
LSep 9 · 16:30T. Regner431491281M. Stefek48121114113
LSep 8 · 24:30T. Regner471110115102M. Stefek39312111123
WAug 30 · 20:00T. Regner331111113M. Stefek177550
LAug 28 · 02:30T. Regner4271181152M. Stefek49118118113
T. Regner10
LSep 22 · 23:30R. Bartunek1.53118119113T. Regner2.3881171172WSep 22 · 21:30T. Regner2.101111113J. Framberk1.665990WSep 22 · 20:00P. Franc2.385260T. Regner1.531111113WSep 22 · 19:00M. Barta2.7510311101T. Regner1.4012117123LSep 22 · 18:30T. Regner2.25114891J. Framberk1.5791111113WSep 21 · 02:58T. Regner1.831311113M. Stefek1.8311680WSep 21 · 02:30M. Stefek1.83111221142T. Regner1.83514117113LSep 21 · 01:00R. Hasmanda3.503111111113T. Regner1.2811139592LSep 20 · 23:30T. Regner1.8381111121L. Sulava1.8311913143WSep 20 · 22:00T. Regner1.50621111113J. Pleskot2.5011112482
M. Stefek10
WSep 22 · 13:30V. Sr2.457141131M. Stefek1.4811169113WSep 22 · 12:00M. Stefek1.611111113Z. Drabek2.206770LSep 22 · 11:30V. Sr3.25411113113M. Stefek1.3311741162WSep 22 · 10:00M. Stefek1.7381113123R. Hasmanda2.0011711101WSep 21 · 21:00V. Nohejl1.4051191182M. Stefek2.75114110113LSep 21 · 20:30J. Moravek1.5711911113M. Stefek2.25411471LSep 21 · 19:30M. Stefek2.5010980V. Nohejl1.501211113LSep 21 · 18:30R. Bartunek1.5061111113M. Stefek2.50117881LSep 21 · 02:58T. Regner1.831311113M. Stefek1.8311680LSep 21 · 02:30M. Stefek1.83111221142T. Regner1.83514117113
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