TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Hruska Sr vs Martin Stefek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Vaclav Hruska Sr
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411117114311116
Martin Stefek
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Hruska Sr above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 79 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Martin Stefek at 72.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hruska Sr 8–25 Martin Stefek Vaclav Hruska Sr has won 8 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-25 in 33
Stefek
Wrong
gap of 17 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sr 1331 vs Stefek 1372
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sr 40% vs Stefek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sr 50% vs Stefek 30%
Sr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sr +1 · Stefek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 3.25 / Stefek 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Stefek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13169786
Sr3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 71 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Stefek1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 115 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it77% 84 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSr1wins
AwayStefek9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr25%1 of 4
AwayStefek100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S2Sr4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S3Sr3Stefek7n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S4Sr1Stefek6n = 7Stefek took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSrStefekSr − StefekBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.140.6−4.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 974 vs 597 / 124546.7%48%455 / 974 vs 597 / 1245Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekSr 3.25/Stefek 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.5%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 10:00V. Sr30119551M. Stefek4181111113
LJun 26 · 10:30V. Sr367811101M. Stefek4111117123
WJun 26 · 07:30V. Sr341112113M. Stefek2781090
LJun 25 · 12:00V. Sr31811481M. Stefek4011711113
LJun 23 · 10:30V. Sr34118961M. Stefek4291111113
LMay 19 · 06:00V. Sr511110811112M. Stefek46812112133
LMay 15 · 11:30V. Sr4412111381M. Stefek4914915113
LMay 15 · 07:30V. Sr2991280M. Stefek361114113
LApr 9 · 10:00V. Sr4681111792M. Stefek47116811113
LApr 8 · 06:00V. Sr2613670M. Stefek371511113
V. Sr10
WSep 22 · 10:30Z. Drabek1.7361111922V. Sr2.00117211113LSep 19 · 13:12V. Sr1.801181081P. Berdych1.9151112113LSep 19 · 12:30V. Sr2.208101411112J. Strnad1.611112129133WSep 19 · 11:00V. Sr2.00511711113P. Berdych1.7311711482LSep 19 · 10:00M. Stefek1.3681111113V. Sr3.00119551LSep 17 · 09:30V. Sr2.0061111772J. Strnad1.73114911113WSep 17 · 08:00J. Strnad1.61671161V. Sr2.2011118113WSep 17 · 07:00J. Grohsgott2.10711791V. Sr1.6711911113WSep 17 · 06:30V. Sr1.50136116113M. Vaclavik2.50111171172LSep 16 · 13:30J. Strnad1.671114113V. Sr2.1081260
M. Stefek10
WSep 22 · 12:00M. Stefek1.611111113Z. Drabek2.206770WSep 22 · 10:00M. Stefek1.7381113123R. Hasmanda2.0011711101WSep 21 · 21:00V. Nohejl1.4051191182M. Stefek2.75114110113LSep 21 · 20:30J. Moravek1.5711911113M. Stefek2.25411471LSep 21 · 19:30M. Stefek2.5010980V. Nohejl1.501211113LSep 21 · 18:30R. Bartunek1.5061111113M. Stefek2.50117881LSep 21 · 02:58T. Regner1.831311113M. Stefek1.8311680LSep 21 · 02:30M. Stefek1.83111221142T. Regner1.83514117113WSep 21 · 01:30L. Sulava1.911111711122M. Stefek1.80137116143WSep 19 · 10:00M. Stefek1.3681111113V. Sr3.00119551
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