TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vaclav Hruska Sr vs Martin Stefek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Vaclav Hruska Sr
Home
2.45
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111416119311––
Martin Stefek
Away
1.48
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Hruska Sr above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 82 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Martin Stefek at 58.7%
82 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hruska Sr 9–25 Martin Stefek Vaclav Hruska Sr has won 9 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sr beat Stefek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:04What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (62%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-25 in 34
Stefek
Correct
gap of 16 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sr 1368 vs Stefek 1363
Sr
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sr 60% vs Stefek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sr 60% vs Stefek 40%
Sr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sr +3 · Stefek +1
Sr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSr 2.45 / Stefek 1.48
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Stefek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13177645
Sr2.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 71 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back24% 26 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Stefek1.48
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 115 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it77% 84 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSr2wins
AwayStefek8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSr25%1 of 4
AwayStefek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sr4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S2Sr5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S3Sr4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S4Sr1Stefek7n = 8Stefek took 7 of 8
S5Sr1Stefek2n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSrStefekSr − StefekBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.540.8−3.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 976 vs 598 / 124746.8%48%457 / 976 vs 598 / 1247Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekSr 2.45/Stefek 1.48
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 11:30V. Sr40411113113M. Stefek3911741162
LSep 19 · 10:00V. Sr30119551M. Stefek4181111113
LJun 26 · 10:30V. Sr367811101M. Stefek4111117123
WJun 26 · 07:30V. Sr341112113M. Stefek2781090
LJun 25 · 12:00V. Sr31811481M. Stefek4011711113
LJun 23 · 10:30V. Sr34118961M. Stefek4291111113
LMay 19 · 06:00V. Sr511110811112M. Stefek46812112133
LMay 15 · 11:30V. Sr4412111381M. Stefek4914915113
LMay 15 · 07:30V. Sr2991280M. Stefek361114113
LApr 9 · 10:00V. Sr4681111792M. Stefek47116811113
V. Sr10
WSep 22 · 14:00P. Berdych1.73781331V. Sr2.00111111113WSep 22 · 12:30R. Hasmanda1.4451360V. Sr2.631115113WSep 22 · 11:30V. Sr3.25411113113M. Stefek1.3311741162WSep 22 · 10:30Z. Drabek1.7361111922V. Sr2.00117211113LSep 19 · 13:12V. Sr1.801181081P. Berdych1.9151112113LSep 19 · 12:30V. Sr2.208101411112J. Strnad1.611112129133WSep 19 · 11:00V. Sr2.00511711113P. Berdych1.7311711482LSep 19 · 10:00M. Stefek1.3681111113V. Sr3.00119551LSep 17 · 09:30V. Sr2.0061111772J. Strnad1.73114911113WSep 17 · 08:00J. Strnad1.61671161V. Sr2.2011118113
M. Stefek10
WSep 22 · 12:00M. Stefek1.611111113Z. Drabek2.206770LSep 22 · 11:30V. Sr3.25411113113M. Stefek1.3311741162WSep 22 · 10:00M. Stefek1.7381113123R. Hasmanda2.0011711101WSep 21 · 21:00V. Nohejl1.4051191182M. Stefek2.75114110113LSep 21 · 20:30J. Moravek1.5711911113M. Stefek2.25411471LSep 21 · 19:30M. Stefek2.5010980V. Nohejl1.501211113LSep 21 · 18:30R. Bartunek1.5061111113M. Stefek2.50117881LSep 21 · 02:58T. Regner1.831311113M. Stefek1.8311680LSep 21 · 02:30M. Stefek1.83111221142T. Regner1.83514117113WSep 19 · 10:00M. Stefek1.3681111113V. Sr3.00119551
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.