TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Regner vs Jan Framberk 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Tomas Regner
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119119––––
Jan Framberk
Away
1.66
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeJan Framberk to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Regner above · Jan Framberk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jan Framberk at 59.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Regner 3–8 Jan Framberk Tomas Regner has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Framberk beat Regner 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:56What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (56%)
Framberk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Framberk
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1387 vs Framberk 1375
Regner
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 80% vs Framberk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 60% vs Framberk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +2 · Framberk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Framberk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Framberk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.10 / Framberk 1.66
Signal prob.43% / 58%
Edge (Framberk)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13180516
Regner2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 110 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back26% 34 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 68
Framberk1.66
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 47 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner2wins
AwayFramberk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFramberk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner0%0 of 3
AwayFramberk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner3Framberk7n = 10Framberk took 7 of 10
S2Regner5Framberk5n = 10split evenly
S3Regner3Framberk7n = 10Framberk took 7 of 10
S4Regner2Framberk7n = 9Framberk took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerFramberkR − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.241.8−6.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerFramberkBasisWin rate · lifetime493 / 997 vs 87 / 16249.5%53.7%493 / 997 vs 87 / 162Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FramberkRegner 2.10/Framberk 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.5%
Framberk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 18:30T. Regner32114891J. Framberk4291111113
LSep 16 · 22:30T. Regner34138941J. Framberk44111111113
LSep 7 · 23:30T. Regner409811121J. Framberk4411118143
LAug 6 · 21:00T. Regner194870J. Framberk331111113
LAug 6 · 19:30T. Regner33611971J. Framberk3911611113
LJul 29 · 16:00T. Regner27612541J. Framberk43111011113
LJul 22 · 15:30T. Regner37911891J. Framberk4011711113
LJul 14 · 16:00T. Regner4011381172J. Framberk50911118113
WJun 21 · 17:00T. Regner4171211113J. Framberk371110971
WJun 21 · 15:00T. Regner491111115113J. Framberk4613761192
T. Regner10
WSep 22 · 20:00P. Franc2.385260T. Regner1.531111113WSep 22 · 19:00M. Barta2.7510311101T. Regner1.4012117123LSep 22 · 18:30T. Regner2.25114891J. Framberk1.5791111113WSep 21 · 02:58T. Regner1.831311113M. Stefek1.8311680WSep 21 · 02:30M. Stefek1.83111221142T. Regner1.83514117113LSep 21 · 01:00R. Hasmanda3.503111111113T. Regner1.2811139592LSep 20 · 23:30T. Regner1.8381111121L. Sulava1.8311913143WSep 20 · 22:00T. Regner1.50621111113J. Pleskot2.5011112482WSep 18 · 20:58T. Regner1.331411113J. Strnad3.2512870LSep 18 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00119119133T. Regner1.73411711112
J. Framberk10
LSep 22 · 20:30M. Barta2.751111113J. Framberk1.404850WSep 22 · 19:30J. Framberk1.731111113P. Franc2.007560WSep 22 · 18:30T. Regner2.25114891J. Framberk1.5791111113WSep 22 · 17:00P. Berdych1.83671111112J. Framberk1.83111188133WSep 22 · 16:30V. Sr2.206840J. Framberk1.611111113LSep 22 · 15:30J. Framberk1.8011812982P. Berdych1.919111011113LSep 22 · 14:30Z. Drabek1.831111123J. Framberk1.8338100LSep 17 · 02:58M. Novak1.577111111114J. Framberk2.251149471LSep 17 · 02:00J. Framberk2.255840M. Stefek1.571111113WSep 17 · 01:00J. Framberk1.91811911113R. Hasmanda1.8011411592
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