TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vladimir Postelt vs Frantisek Briza 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012411––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeVladimir Postelt to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladimir Postelt above · Frantisek Briza below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 57 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Vladimir Postelt at 79.4%
57 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Postelt 11–5 Frantisek Briza Frantisek Briza has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:5579.4%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
clears by 1.6pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Postelt
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Postelt
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1450 vs Briza 1331
Postelt
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 60% vs Briza 0%
Postelt
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 40% vs Briza 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt -1 · Briza -5
Briza
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Postelt) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Briza form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 1.285 / Briza 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Postelt)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13247686
Postelt1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 118 of 191
Up 2–0, closes it97% 58 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it85% 90 of 106
Briza3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 79 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back23% 31 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePostelt9wins
AwayBriza1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPostelt leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePostelt100%7 of 7
AwayBriza33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt7Briza3n = 10Postelt took 7 of 10
S2Postelt6Briza4n = 10Postelt took 6 of 10
S3Postelt8Briza2n = 10Postelt took 8 of 10
S4Postelt5Briza1n = 6Postelt took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPosteltBrizaP − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.730.5+7.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltBrizaBasisWin rate · lifetime428 / 818 vs 369 / 81952.3%45.1%428 / 818 vs 369 / 819Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PosteltPostelt 1.28/Briza 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Postelt · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Briza won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 20:00V. Postelt3711411113F. Briza30511861
WOct 3 · 17:30V. Postelt361411113F. Briza2412750
WOct 3 · 15:30V. Postelt4011711113F. Briza32811671
WSep 18 · 14:00V. Postelt43101111113F. Briza31129731
WSep 13 · 20:30V. Postelt331111113F. Briza239860
LSep 9 · 21:00V. Postelt2510780F. Briza341211113
WSep 9 · 18:00V. Postelt4111811113F. Briza30511591
WJun 11 · 22:30V. Postelt4111118113F. Briza33941191
WJun 8 · 02:00V. Postelt482111311113F. Briza44115111342
WMay 11 · 00:00V. Postelt331111113F. Briza248970
V. Postelt10
LOct 2 · 17:30V. Postelt2.05911111232M. Vedmoch1.681113810113WOct 2 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.441011671V. Postelt2.6312511113WOct 2 · 15:00J. Prokupek1.91117781V. Postelt1.8081111113WOct 2 · 14:30V. Postelt1.571111113T. Dousa2.258890LOct 2 · 13:45V. Postelt1.5741491172M. Fisera2.251112116113LOct 2 · 12:00M. Kolar1.9191111113V. Postelt1.80117881LOct 2 · 11:00L. Malek3.751181012113V. Postelt1.25911121092WOct 2 · 10:30V. Postelt1.25911212113M. Fisera3.75118111072LSep 30 · 03:00V. Postelt1.508350J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 30 · 02:00V. Postelt1.141411991K. Darin5.0016511113
F. Briza10
LOct 6 · 16:58T. Kolenic1.80119911133F. Briza1.91711116112LOct 6 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.731115113F. Briza2.0021360LOct 6 · 15:30F. Briza2.637111181Y. Holovatiuk1.4411139113LOct 6 · 14:30T. Dousa1.4481113113F. Briza2.631171161LOct 4 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.531811123F. Briza2.38167100WOct 4 · 12:30F. Briza2.00111198133T. Kolenic1.73521111112WOct 4 · 11:00F. Briza2.201511113D. Horak1.6113860LOct 4 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.61851111113F. Briza2.2011117572LOct 4 · 09:28A. Svoboda1.5011611113F. Briza2.50411631WOct 4 · 08:30M. Kolar1.5371040F. Briza2.381112113
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