TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Frantisek Briza vs David Horak 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1513118116––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:55 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Horak to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFrantisek Briza above · David Horak below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 64 set 3, 11-6 · our read held David Horak at 58.5%
64 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Briza 43–60 David Horak Frantisek Briza has won 43 of their 103 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Briza beat Horak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5558.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Horak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
43-60 in 103
Horak
Wrong
gap of 17 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Briza 1349 vs Horak 1401
Horak
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Briza 40% vs Horak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Briza 30% vs Horak 50%
Horak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Briza -2 · Horak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Horak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBriza 2.20 / Horak 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Horak)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13237729
Briza2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 77 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back23% 31 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 72
Horak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 125 of 206
Up 2–0, closes it91% 64 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it78% 90 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBriza5wins
AwayHorak5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBriza50%2 of 4
AwayHorak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Briza4Horak6n = 10Horak took 6 of 10
S2Briza6Horak4n = 10Briza took 6 of 10
S3Briza2Horak8n = 10Horak took 8 of 10
S4Briza5Horak2n = 7Briza took 5 of 7
S5Briza3Horak2n = 5Briza took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrizaHorakB − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.638.5+1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrizaHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime371 / 824 vs 287 / 53545%53.6%371 / 824 vs 287 / 535Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HorakBriza 2.20/Horak 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Briza won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 07:30F. Briza331111113D. Horak102530
WOct 3 · 16:30F. Briza4011117113D. Horak33761191
LOct 3 · 13:12F. Briza4261181252D. Horak491161110113
WOct 3 · 11:30F. Briza549121111113D. Horak49111013782
LSep 27 · 10:30F. Briza35116991D. Horak3851111113
WSep 27 · 07:00F. Briza50981111113D. Horak4711118892
LSep 25 · 17:30F. Briza2811980D. Horak351311113
LSep 25 · 15:30F. Briza2712870D. Horak361411113
WSep 20 · 09:30F. Briza41411411113D. Horak3911511932
LSep 20 · 06:00F. Briza46111110952D. Horak49691211113
F. Briza10
LOct 4 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.61851111113F. Briza2.2011117572LOct 4 · 09:28A. Svoboda1.5011611113F. Briza2.50411631WOct 4 · 08:30M. Kolar1.5371040F. Briza2.381112113WOct 4 · 07:30F. Briza2.251111113D. Horak1.572530LOct 4 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.731111113F. Briza2.002450LOct 3 · 17:00F. Briza1.876790K. Darin1.831111113WOct 3 · 16:30D. Horak1.61761191F. Briza2.2011117113LOct 3 · 15:30F. Briza2.10961161K. Darin1.6711119113LOct 3 · 14:30M. Kolar1.531116113F. Briza2.3861470LOct 3 · 13:12F. Briza2.0761181252D. Horak1.671161110113
D. Horak10
LOct 4 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.611210123113D. Horak2.201012101152WOct 4 · 10:30D. Horak1.611111113T. Kolenic2.206440LOct 4 · 09:00D. Horak1.801051191M. Kolar1.9112117113LOct 4 · 08:00D. Horak2.2012157762A. Svoboda1.6110131111113LOct 4 · 07:30F. Briza2.251111113D. Horak1.572530WOct 4 · 06:00D. Horak1.91491211113M. Kolar1.80111110252LOct 3 · 17:30D. Horak1.85117512102M. Kolar1.857111110123LOct 3 · 16:30D. Horak1.61761191F. Briza2.2011117113WOct 3 · 15:00D. Horak2.251211113M. Kolar1.5710790WOct 3 · 13:12F. Briza2.0761181252D. Horak1.671161110113
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