TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Horak vs Milan Kolar 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117119––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Horak above · Milan Kolar below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 60 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Milan Kolar at 60.1%
60 points played in total.
H2H David Horak 30–30 Milan Kolar Dead even across their 60 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Horak beat Kolar 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5960.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kolar
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-30 in 60
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1418 vs Kolar 1482
Kolar
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 60% vs Kolar 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 50% vs Kolar 70%
Kolar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak +2 · Kolar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Kolar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 2.25 / Kolar 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kolar)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13232364
Horak2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog33% won 21 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Kolar1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 106 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it91% 57 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it79% 82 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorak5wins
AwayKolar5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak50%2 of 4
AwayKolar50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak4Kolar6n = 10Kolar took 6 of 10
S2Horak5Kolar5n = 10split evenly
S3Horak3Kolar7n = 10Kolar took 7 of 10
S4Horak3Kolar4n = 7Kolar took 4 of 7
S5Horak4Kolar1n = 5Horak took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorakKolarH − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.942.2−1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 527 vs 407 / 81753.9%49.8%284 / 527 vs 407 / 817Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolarHorak 2.25/Kolar 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 10:00D. Horak351111133M. Kolar1944110
LSep 2 · 17:06D. Horak24101040M. Kolar351212113
WSep 2 · 15:30D. Horak6515181011113M. Kolar58171612762
LJul 18 · 03:30D. Horak4311411982M. Kolar48911611113
WJul 17 · 23:30D. Horak551161116113M. Kolar51131171462
LJul 11 · 19:30D. Horak165560M. Kolar331111113
WJul 11 · 15:00D. Horak521111613113M. Kolar4769111562
LJul 6 · 14:00D. Horak361181071M. Kolar4281112113
WJul 4 · 22:00D. Horak50614811113M. Kolar48111211862
LJul 1 · 17:30D. Horak33911851M. Kolar4111811113
D. Horak10
WOct 3 · 14:00K. Darin1.736990D. Horak2.001111113WOct 3 · 13:12F. Briza2.0761181252D. Horak1.671161110113LOct 3 · 12:00D. Horak1.91119841A. Svoboda1.8041111113LOct 3 · 11:30F. Briza2.259121111113D. Horak1.57111013782WOct 3 · 10:00D. Horak2.201111133M. Kolar1.6144110LSep 27 · 13:31V. Kosar1.90611911133D. Horak1.80118119112LSep 27 · 12:00V. Kosar2.20115115113D. Horak1.6151181182WSep 27 · 11:00A. Svoboda1.619111191D. Horak2.2011813113WSep 27 · 10:30D. Horak1.6151111113F. Briza2.20116991LSep 27 · 08:59A. Svoboda1.57511811113D. Horak2.2511911662
M. Kolar10
WOct 3 · 14:30M. Kolar1.531116113F. Briza2.3861470LOct 3 · 13:30A. Svoboda2.1011124113M. Kolar1.653101181WOct 3 · 12:30M. Kolar1.53131188123F. Briza2.381131111102WOct 3 · 11:00M. Kolar1.61411118113A. Svoboda2.2011831162LOct 3 · 10:00D. Horak2.201111133M. Kolar1.6144110WOct 2 · 13:30M. Kolar1.8091111113L. Malek1.91118981WOct 2 · 12:00M. Kolar1.9191111113V. Postelt1.80117881WOct 2 · 11:30M. Fisera2.50101111852M. Kolar1.50125511113WOct 2 · 10:00M. Kolar1.61111259113L. Malek2.20310111172LOct 1 · 17:07T. Dousa1.6351211113M. Kolar2.131110491
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