TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Kolar vs Frantisek Briza 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13111138118111210
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Kolar above · Frantisek Briza below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 98 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Milan Kolar at 62.4%
98 points played in total.
H2H Milan Kolar 77–44 Frantisek Briza Frantisek Briza has won 44 of their 121 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1962.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kolar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
77-44 in 121
Kolar
Correct
gap of 33 in 121, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolar 1456 vs Briza 1365
Kolar
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolar 80% vs Briza 40%
Kolar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolar 50% vs Briza 20%
Kolar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolar +1 · Briza +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Kolar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolar 1.533 / Briza 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kolar)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13232371
Kolar1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 106 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it91% 57 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it79% 82 of 104
Briza2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 75 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back23% 30 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolar5wins
AwayBriza5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolar60%3 of 5
AwayBriza60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolar5Briza5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolar4Briza6n = 10Briza took 6 of 10
S3Kolar6Briza4n = 10Kolar took 6 of 10
S4Kolar2Briza4n = 6Briza took 4 of 6
S5Kolar3Briza2n = 5Kolar took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolarBrizaK − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.3+1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolarBrizaBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 814 vs 368 / 81349.8%45.3%405 / 814 vs 368 / 813Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolarKolar 1.53/Briza 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 00:30M. Kolar2291030F. Briza341112113
LSep 2 · 14:00M. Kolar3911391152F. Briza47911115113
WAug 7 · 23:00M. Kolar331111113F. Briza196940
WJul 18 · 02:30M. Kolar331111113F. Briza166730
LJul 11 · 20:30M. Kolar4211119382F. Briza41351111113
LJul 11 · 17:30M. Kolar36791191F. Briza3811115113
WJul 11 · 16:30M. Kolar51971111133F. Briza46111194112
LJul 6 · 16:30M. Kolar2798100F. Briza341111123
WJul 5 · 01:00M. Kolar46711116113F. Briza4211651192
WJun 28 · 03:00M. Kolar471112112113F. Briza4641481192
M. Kolar10
WOct 3 · 14:30M. Kolar1.531116113F. Briza2.3861470LOct 3 · 13:30A. Svoboda2.1011124113M. Kolar1.653101181WOct 3 · 11:00M. Kolar1.61411118113A. Svoboda2.2011831162LOct 3 · 10:00D. Horak2.201111133M. Kolar1.6144110WOct 2 · 13:30M. Kolar1.8091111113L. Malek1.91118981WOct 2 · 12:00M. Kolar1.9191111113V. Postelt1.80117881WOct 2 · 11:30M. Fisera2.50101111852M. Kolar1.50125511113WOct 2 · 10:00M. Kolar1.61111259113L. Malek2.20310111172LOct 1 · 17:07T. Dousa1.6351211113M. Kolar2.131110491LOct 1 · 16:30M. Kolar1.57471171J. Dedek2.2511118113
F. Briza10
LOct 3 · 14:30M. Kolar1.531116113F. Briza2.3861470LOct 3 · 13:12F. Briza2.0761181252D. Horak1.671161110113WOct 3 · 11:30F. Briza2.259121111113D. Horak1.57111013782LOct 3 · 10:30A. Svoboda1.73912911113F. Briza2.00111011272WSep 29 · 17:00J. Jnr1.83711781F. Briza1.8311911113LSep 29 · 16:30F. Briza2.00413971T. Kolenic1.73111111113LSep 29 · 15:00F. Briza1.571411281J. Jnr2.2516211113LSep 29 · 14:00J. Dedek1.3341111113F. Briza3.25118591LSep 27 · 12:58A. Svoboda1.7361111113F. Briza2.00118771LSep 27 · 12:30A. Svoboda1.8015127113F. Briza1.9113101171
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolar
F. Briza
Oct 3 · 15:30F. Briza2.25K. Darin1.57—Oct 3 · 16:30F. Briza2.20D. Horak1.61—Oct 4 · 06:30F. Briza2.00A. Svoboda1.73—Oct 4 · 07:30F. Briza2.20D. Horak1.61—Oct 4 · 08:30F. Briza2.25M. Kolar1.57—Oct 4 · 10:00F. Briza2.00A. Svoboda1.73—Oct 4 · 11:00F. Briza—D. Horak——Oct 4 · 12:30F. Briza2.00T. Kolenic1.73—
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