TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Fisera vs Milan Kolar 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012115115811511
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:28 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Fisera above · Milan Kolar below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 89 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Milan Kolar at 62.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Milan Fisera 45–48 Milan Kolar Milan Fisera has won 45 of their 93 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2862.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kolar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
45-48 in 93
Kolar
Correct
gap of 3 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fisera 1431 vs Kolar 1429
Fisera
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fisera 60% vs Kolar 20%
Fisera
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fisera 40% vs Kolar 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fisera -2 · Kolar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Kolar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolar form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFisera 2.50 / Kolar 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kolar)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228067
Fisera2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Kolar1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 103 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it90% 56 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 80 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFisera2wins
AwayKolar8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKolar leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFisera33.3%1 of 3
AwayKolar85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fisera3Kolar7n = 10Kolar took 7 of 10
S2Fisera1Kolar9n = 10Kolar took 9 of 10
S3Fisera3Kolar7n = 10Kolar took 7 of 10
S4Fisera3Kolar2n = 5Fisera took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricFiseraKolarF − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match28.336.4−8.1per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiseraKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 330 vs 401 / 80944.9%49.6%148 / 330 vs 401 / 809Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolarFisera 2.50/Kolar 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 16:30M. Fisera194690M. Kolar331111113
LJul 1 · 16:30M. Fisera29137631M. Kolar44111111113
LJun 21 · 01:00M. Fisera174850M. Kolar331111113
LJun 18 · 13:30M. Fisera195860M. Kolar331111113
WJun 18 · 12:30M. Fisera43111011113M. Kolar36812881
LMay 27 · 10:00M. Fisera31381191M. Kolar3611113113
WMay 17 · 15:30M. Fisera46131111113M. Kolar36156961
LApr 7 · 21:28M. Fisera196760M. Kolar331111113
LApr 7 · 18:00M. Fisera2021080M. Kolar341112113
LMar 18 · 17:30M. Fisera40111011172M. Kolar46712115113
M. Fisera10
WOct 2 · 13:45V. Postelt1.5741491172M. Fisera2.251112116113LOct 2 · 12:30L. Malek1.731011711113M. Fisera2.0012511852LOct 2 · 10:30V. Postelt1.25911212113M. Fisera3.75118111072LSep 26 · 21:30M. Fisera1.678690J. Didi2.101111113WSep 26 · 20:30V. Kosar2.38171141182M. Fisera1.531581113113WSep 26 · 19:30M. Fisera1.731051112113J. Didi2.00121191082WSep 26 · 18:30M. Stefek2.633390M. Fisera1.441111113LSep 12 · 17:04F. Jungman1.601211113M. Fisera2.2010780LSep 12 · 16:30M. Fisera2.754690M. Kolar1.401111113LSep 12 · 15:00M. Fisera2.5012813672A. Svoboda1.5010111111113
M. Kolar10
WOct 2 · 12:00M. Kolar1.9191111113V. Postelt1.80117881WOct 2 · 10:00M. Kolar1.61111259113L. Malek2.20310111172LOct 1 · 17:07T. Dousa1.6351211113M. Kolar2.131110491LOct 1 · 16:30M. Kolar1.57471171J. Dedek2.2511118113LOct 1 · 15:00M. Kolar2.2511118752T. Dousa1.57471111113LOct 1 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk1.611411133M. Kolar2.20125110LSep 28 · 17:30K. Novak1.831111113M. Kolar1.837680WSep 28 · 16:30J. Dedek2.103660M. Kolar1.671111113LSep 28 · 15:30M. Kolar1.4048110K. Novak2.751111133WSep 12 · 16:30M. Fisera2.754690M. Kolar1.401111113
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