TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Kolar vs Tomas Dousa 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114117811711511
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:55 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousa to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Kolar above · Tomas Dousa below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 86 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Tomas Dousa at 60.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Milan Kolar 7–19 Tomas Dousa Milan Kolar has won 7 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5560.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dousa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-19 in 26
Dousa
Correct
gap of 12 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolar 1449 vs Dousa 1449
Dousa
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolar 40% vs Dousa 20%
Kolar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolar 50% vs Dousa 30%
Kolar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolar -2 · Dousa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Dousa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousa form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolar 2.25 / Dousa 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Dousa)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222603
Kolar2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 75 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Dousa1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 80 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it70% 52 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolar3wins
AwayDousa7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDousa leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolar50%2 of 4
AwayDousa83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolar4Dousa6n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10
S2Kolar4Dousa6n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10
S3Kolar6Dousa4n = 10Kolar took 6 of 10
S4Kolar5Dousa4n = 9Kolar took 5 of 9
S5Kolar1Dousa4n = 5Dousa took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolarDousaK − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.240.7−0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolarDousaBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 805 vs 343 / 69949.7%49.1%400 / 805 vs 343 / 699Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DousaKolar 2.25/Dousa 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Dousa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dousa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 14:30M. Kolar511181011113T. Dousa4181112372
LAug 31 · 19:00M. Kolar34691181T. Dousa4111118113
LAug 13 · 19:00M. Kolar4511119952T. Dousa44921111113
LAug 4 · 17:07M. Kolar45851111102T. Dousa47111149123
WAug 4 · 14:30M. Kolar331111113T. Dousa209740
WAug 3 · 19:00M. Kolar4291111113T. Dousa25114371
LJul 31 · 20:30M. Kolar3911541182T. Dousa45611116113
LMay 19 · 16:30M. Kolar34681371T. Dousa44111111113
LNov 29 · 14:30M. Kolar3736111252T. Dousa521111910113
LNov 29 · 12:00M. Kolar42717991T. Dousa48111511113
M. Kolar10
LOct 1 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk1.611411133M. Kolar2.20125110LSep 28 · 17:30K. Novak1.831111113M. Kolar1.837680WSep 28 · 16:30J. Dedek2.103660M. Kolar1.671111113LSep 28 · 15:30M. Kolar1.4048110K. Novak2.751111133WSep 28 · 14:30L. Stacho2.25811111362M. Kolar1.571171311113LSep 28 · 13:30J. Stolfa1.4371111113M. Kolar2.60115681WSep 28 · 12:30L. Stacho1.8310570M. Kolar1.831211113LSep 28 · 11:30M. Kolar2.758111291J. Stolfa1.4011914103WSep 28 · 10:30J. Trefny1.617960M. Kolar2.201111113WSep 27 · 02:00M. Kolar1.7391211113J. Dedek2.001110691
T. Dousa10
LOct 1 · 14:30T. Dousa1.839970J. Dedek1.831111113LSep 23 · 20:58T. Dousa1.673840P. Klusacek2.101111113WSep 23 · 20:00P. Klusacek1.83711391T. Dousa1.8311811113LSep 23 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk2.631011911113T. Dousa1.4412711862LSep 23 · 18:30T. Dousa1.739580P. Fojt2.001111113WSep 21 · 20:58Y. Holovatiuk2.50571161T. Dousa1.5011116113WSep 21 · 20:00Y. Holovatiuk2.631211111032T. Dousa1.44148712113LSep 21 · 19:00J. Prokupek1.83811911113T. Dousa1.8311511372LSep 21 · 18:30T. Dousa1.738980L. Krok2.001111113LSep 14 · 20:58M. Sedlak1.251111113T. Dousa3.757480
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