TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Yurii Holovatiuk vs Milan Kolar 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
14121151311––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:56 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeYurii Holovatiuk to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Holovatiuk above · Milan Kolar below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 66 set 3, 13-11 · our read held Yurii Holovatiuk at 61.2%
66 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Holovatiuk 20–7 Milan Kolar Milan Kolar has won 7 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5661.2%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 0.7pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Holovatiuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-7 in 27
Holovatiuk
Correct
gap of 13 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holovatiuk 1457 vs Kolar 1463
Kolar
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holovatiuk 20% vs Kolar 40%
Kolar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holovatiuk 40% vs Kolar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holovatiuk -2 · Kolar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Holovatiuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holovatiuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolovatiuk 1.615 / Kolar 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Holovatiuk)-0.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13220964
Holovatiuk1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 85 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it79% 53 of 67
Kolar2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 75 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolovatiuk9wins
AwayKolar1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHolovatiuk leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolovatiuk85.7%6 of 7
AwayKolar0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holovatiuk7Kolar3n = 10Holovatiuk took 7 of 10
S2Holovatiuk6Kolar4n = 10Holovatiuk took 6 of 10
S3Holovatiuk5Kolar5n = 10split evenly
S4Holovatiuk6Kolar2n = 8Holovatiuk took 6 of 8
S5Holovatiuk4Kolar0n = 4Holovatiuk took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolovatiukKolarH − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.136.1+6.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolovatiukKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 705 vs 400 / 80449.5%49.8%349 / 705 vs 400 / 804Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HolovatiukHolovatiuk 1.61/Kolar 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Holovatiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Holovatiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk45111148113M. Kolar4083111172
WAug 31 · 21:05Y. Holovatiuk4071111113M. Kolar26115731
WAug 31 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk52118911133M. Kolar46411119112
WAug 3 · 21:30Y. Holovatiuk521181011123M. Kolar43511125102
WAug 3 · 18:00Y. Holovatiuk46611711113M. Kolar4211811842
WMay 23 · 22:00Y. Holovatiuk351113113M. Kolar2991190
WMay 21 · 19:30Y. Holovatiuk341112113M. Kolar2481060
LMay 13 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk29113691M. Kolar3741111113
WMay 13 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk45111211113M. Kolar381310781
WFeb 22 · 01:00Y. Holovatiuk4312911113M. Kolar361011871
Y. Holovatiuk10
LSep 23 · 21:30P. Fojt1.431111113Y. Holovatiuk2.655450LSep 23 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.6311911672P. Fojt1.44811711113WSep 23 · 19:00Y. Holovatiuk2.631011911113T. Dousa1.4412711862LSep 23 · 18:00P. Klusacek1.8371111113Y. Holovatiuk1.83115391LSep 21 · 20:58Y. Holovatiuk2.50571161T. Dousa1.5011116113LSep 21 · 20:00Y. Holovatiuk2.631211111032T. Dousa1.44148712113WSep 21 · 19:30L. Krok1.44881141Y. Holovatiuk2.6311117113LSep 21 · 18:00Y. Holovatiuk1.83111375102J. Prokupek1.837111111123WSep 21 · 16:58K. Darin1.836912121Y. Holovatiuk1.83111110143WSep 21 · 16:30Y. Holovatiuk1.5381111113L. Babicka2.38115861
M. Kolar10
LSep 28 · 17:30K. Novak1.831111113M. Kolar1.837680WSep 28 · 16:30J. Dedek2.103660M. Kolar1.671111113LSep 28 · 15:30M. Kolar1.4048110K. Novak2.751111133WSep 28 · 14:30L. Stacho2.25811111362M. Kolar1.571171311113LSep 28 · 13:30J. Stolfa1.4371111113M. Kolar2.60115681WSep 28 · 12:30L. Stacho1.8310570M. Kolar1.831211113LSep 28 · 11:30M. Kolar2.758111291J. Stolfa1.4011914103WSep 28 · 10:30J. Trefny1.617960M. Kolar2.201111113WSep 27 · 02:00M. Kolar1.7391211113J. Dedek2.001110691LSep 27 · 01:00M. Kolar2.63711491T. Varnuska1.4411511113
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