TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Lukas Malek vs Milan Fisera 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012115711118115
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Malek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Malek above · Milan Fisera below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 91 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Lukas Malek at 54.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Malek 7–5 Milan Fisera Milan Fisera has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2154.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Malek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Malek
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malek 1475 vs Fisera 1411
Malek
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malek 80% vs Fisera 40%
Malek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malek 70% vs Fisera 40%
Malek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Malek +1 · Fisera -3
Fisera
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Malek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalek 1.727 / Fisera 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Malek)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13228015
Malek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 36 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it72% 31 of 43
Fisera2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalek6wins
AwayFisera4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMalek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalek62.5%5 of 8
AwayFiseran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malek8Fisera2n = 10Malek took 8 of 10
S2Malek7Fisera3n = 10Malek took 7 of 10
S3Malek3Fisera7n = 10Fisera took 7 of 10
S4Malek3Fisera4n = 7Fisera took 4 of 7
S5Malek3Fisera3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalekFiseraM − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.738.7+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalekFiseraBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 386 vs 148 / 33249.7%44.6%192 / 386 vs 148 / 332Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MalekMalek 1.73/Fisera 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Malek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Malek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 12:30L. Malek501011711113M. Fisera4112511852
LMay 24 · 13:09L. Malek4611581392M. Fisera528111111113
WMay 24 · 12:00L. Malek331111113M. Fisera219480
LOct 23 · 13:30L. Malek143560M. Fisera331111113
LOct 23 · 12:00L. Malek50115111582M. Fisera51511717113
LAug 13 · 12:00L. Malek461111111032M. Fisera47741312113
WJun 25 · 13:30L. Malek331111113M. Fisera115330
WJun 25 · 10:00L. Malek501211511113M. Fisera52109111392
WJun 11 · 12:00L. Malek46111113113M. Fisera34861551
WApr 11 · 13:30L. Malek491111511113M. Fisera4568111372
L. Malek10
WOct 2 · 11:00L. Malek3.751181012113V. Postelt1.25911121092LOct 2 · 10:00M. Kolar1.61111259113L. Malek2.20310111172WSep 28 · 13:28L. Malek1.5312811113A. Svoboda2.381011781WSep 28 · 12:00L. Malek1.531112113A. Svoboda2.3881050WSep 28 · 11:30V. Kosar2.20541591L. Malek1.61111113113WSep 28 · 10:00L. Malek1.8312117113J. Novotny1.831041161WSep 27 · 13:00J. Steffan1.5791111282L. Malek2.25115711113LSep 27 · 12:30L. Malek1.731178121J. Kucharcik2.0081111143WSep 27 · 11:00L. Malek2.75117711113J. Steffan1.4091111562LSep 27 · 10:00M. Placek1.831111113L. Malek1.831990
M. Fisera10
WOct 2 · 13:45V. Postelt1.5741491172M. Fisera2.251112116113LOct 2 · 11:30M. Fisera2.50101111852M. Kolar1.50125511113LOct 2 · 10:30V. Postelt1.25911212113M. Fisera3.75118111072LSep 26 · 21:30M. Fisera1.678690J. Didi2.101111113WSep 26 · 20:30V. Kosar2.38171141182M. Fisera1.531581113113WSep 26 · 19:30M. Fisera1.731051112113J. Didi2.00121191082WSep 26 · 18:30M. Stefek2.633390M. Fisera1.441111113LSep 12 · 17:04F. Jungman1.601211113M. Fisera2.2010780LSep 12 · 16:30M. Fisera2.754690M. Kolar1.401111113LSep 12 · 15:00M. Fisera2.5012813672A. Svoboda1.5010111111113
Upcoming Matches
L. Malek
Nothing scheduled
M. Fisera
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