TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Adam Svoboda vs David Horak 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111181113911––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · David Horak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 83 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 57.4%
83 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 10–5 David Horak David Horak has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Svoboda beat Horak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:45What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Svoboda
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1378 vs Horak 1401
Horak
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Horak 20%
Svoboda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 20% vs Horak 40%
Horak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -1 · Horak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horak form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.61 / Horak 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Svoboda)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13200191
Svoboda1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 65 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it87% 48 of 55
Horak2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog34% won 21 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda7wins
AwayHorak3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda100%3 of 3
AwayHorak42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda3Horak7n = 10Horak took 7 of 10
S2Svoboda7Horak3n = 10Svoboda took 7 of 10
S3Svoboda4Horak6n = 10Horak took 6 of 10
S4Svoboda6Horak3n = 9Svoboda took 6 of 9
S5Svoboda4Horak1n = 5Svoboda took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaHorakS − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.037.8+3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 355 vs 281 / 52051.3%54%182 / 355 vs 281 / 520Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.61/Horak 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 11:00A. Svoboda409111191D. Horak4311813113
WSep 27 · 08:59A. Svoboda46511811113D. Horak4311911662
WSep 27 · 06:30A. Svoboda4281112113D. Horak321141071
WSep 19 · 01:00A. Svoboda44111165113D. Horak3857111142
WSep 18 · 17:00A. Svoboda4111811113D. Horak31611681
WSep 18 · 16:00A. Svoboda521011119113D. Horak3812271162
WAug 15 · 19:30A. Svoboda3631111113D. Horak32116961
LAug 15 · 17:00A. Svoboda208570D. Horak331111113
WAug 15 · 14:30A. Svoboda501171011113D. Horak4281112742
LJul 17 · 22:30A. Svoboda3941181152D. Horak46117116113
A. Svoboda10
LSep 27 · 10:00V. Kosar2.5011716123A. Svoboda1.5041114101WSep 27 · 08:59A. Svoboda1.57511811113D. Horak2.2511911662LSep 27 · 08:30F. Briza1.83811117113A. Svoboda1.8311481172LSep 27 · 07:30A. Svoboda1.8381111542M. Placek1.83118711113WSep 27 · 06:30D. Horak2.101141071A. Svoboda1.6781112113LSep 25 · 13:00L. Malek1.671111113A. Svoboda2.109590LSep 25 · 12:30J. Steffan1.8011118133A. Svoboda1.916711111LSep 25 · 11:30A. Svoboda2.505116101K. Darin1.5011811123LSep 25 · 10:30L. Malek1.7311716113A. Svoboda2.004111451LSep 24 · 02:00A. Svoboda1.674590O. Kucirek2.101111113
D. Horak10
WSep 27 · 10:30D. Horak1.6151111113F. Briza2.20116991LSep 27 · 08:59A. Svoboda1.57511811113D. Horak2.2511911662LSep 27 · 08:00M. Placek1.44711116113D. Horak2.6311691172LSep 27 · 07:00F. Briza2.25981111113D. Horak1.5711118892LSep 27 · 06:30D. Horak2.101141071A. Svoboda1.6781112113WSep 25 · 17:30D. Horak1.611311113F. Briza2.2011980LSep 25 · 16:00D. Horak1.61971231O. Fejtek2.20111110113WSep 25 · 15:30F. Briza2.2012870D. Horak1.611411113WSep 25 · 14:00D. Horak1.611114116113T. Kolenic2.2071671172LSep 20 · 09:30D. Horak1.6011511932F. Briza2.20411411113
Upcoming Matches
A. Svoboda
D. Horak
Nothing scheduled
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