TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Marek Placek vs David Horak 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711116119611117
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:38 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeMarek Placek to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Placek above · David Horak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 90 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Marek Placek at 59.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Marek Placek 18–8 David Horak David Horak has won 8 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Placek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-8 in 26
Placek
Correct
gap of 10 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Placek 1474 vs Horak 1408
Placek
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Placek 80% vs Horak 40%
Placek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Placek 60% vs Horak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Placek +2 · Horak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Placek) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Placek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlacek 1.44 / Horak 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Placek)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13200419
Placek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 43 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it81% 34 of 42
Horak2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog34% won 21 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlacek10wins
AwayHorak0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPlacek leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlacek100%7 of 7
AwayHorak0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Placek7Horak3n = 10Placek took 7 of 10
S2Placek7Horak3n = 10Placek took 7 of 10
S3Placek7Horak3n = 10Placek took 7 of 10
S4Placek8Horak0n = 8Placek took 8 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home770%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlacekHorakP − HBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.731.4+10.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlacekHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 399 vs 279 / 51651.9%54.1%207 / 399 vs 279 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlacekPlacek 1.44/Horak 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Placek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Placek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 00:00M. Placek45111111123D. Horak341347101
WSep 4 · 14:30M. Placek4071111113D. Horak33117961
WJun 14 · 12:00M. Placek51118813113D. Horak43511111152
WJun 12 · 15:00M. Placek4212811113D. Horak331011571
WMay 23 · 21:30M. Placek341111123D. Horak2495100
WMay 23 · 18:00M. Placek4391211113D. Horak341110491
WMay 3 · 06:30M. Placek331111113D. Horak186750
WMay 1 · 21:30M. Placek4211119113D. Horak34771191
WMay 1 · 18:30M. Placek4111811113D. Horak27911521
WApr 19 · 02:30M. Placek4611119153D. Horak346411131
M. Placek10
WSep 27 · 07:30A. Svoboda1.8381111542M. Placek1.83118711113WSep 27 · 06:00M. Placek1.611211123F. Briza2.20104100LSep 19 · 03:30M. Placek1.618860A. Svoboda2.201111113WSep 19 · 02:30M. Placek1.911111113A. Svoboda1.809790WSep 19 · 01:30O. Kucirek2.3811911992M. Placek1.53711411113WSep 19 · 00:00M. Placek1.44111111123D. Horak2.631347101WSep 18 · 23:00F. Briza2.201112991M. Placek1.6161411113LSep 13 · 02:58A. Mikuska1.531111113M. Placek2.386950LSep 13 · 02:30A. Mikuska1.571081111113M. Placek2.2512116962LSep 13 · 01:00A. Svoboda2.101211113M. Placek1.6710890
D. Horak10
LSep 27 · 07:00F. Briza2.25981111113D. Horak1.5711118892LSep 27 · 06:30D. Horak2.101141071A. Svoboda1.6781112113WSep 25 · 17:30D. Horak1.611311113F. Briza2.2011980LSep 25 · 16:00D. Horak1.61971231O. Fejtek2.20111110113WSep 25 · 15:30F. Briza2.2012870D. Horak1.611411113WSep 25 · 14:00D. Horak1.611114116113T. Kolenic2.2071671172LSep 20 · 09:30D. Horak1.6011511932F. Briza2.20411411113WSep 20 · 08:00D. Horak1.281111133V. Dolezal3.5077110LSep 20 · 07:30T. Kolenic2.00861111113D. Horak1.7311119992LSep 19 · 00:00M. Placek1.44111111123D. Horak2.631347101
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