TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
David Horak
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171171311––––
Vaclav Dolezal
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:11 and never touched — 71.9% is still 71.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Horak to win
71.9%
71.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Horak above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 60 set 3, 13-11 — our read held David Horak at 71.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H David Horak 5–2 Vaclav Dolezal Vaclav Dolezal has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:11What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Horak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Horak
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1403 vs Dolezal 1433
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 40% vs Dolezal 60%
Dolezal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 30% vs Dolezal 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak -1 · Dolezal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Horak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 1.28 / Dolezal 3.50
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Horak)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13159399
Horak1.28
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 137 of 222
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it80% 102 of 127
Dolezal3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 37 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHorak5wins
AwayDolezal2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderHorak leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorak80%4 of 5
AwayDolezaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak5Dolezal2n = 7Horak took 5 of 7
S2Horak5Dolezal2n = 7Horak took 5 of 7
S3Horak6Dolezal1n = 7Horak took 6 of 7
S4Horak2Dolezal1n = 3Horak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home457%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricHorakDolezalH − DBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match36.929.9+7.0per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 512 vs 385 / 76853.7%50.1%275 / 512 vs 385 / 768Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakHorak 1.28/Dolezal 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.9%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Horak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 13 · 06:30D. Horak4291111113V. Dolezal28113861
WApr 6 · 11:30D. Horak371313113V. Dolezal30111180
WApr 6 · 07:30D. Horak341112113V. Dolezal2561090
WApr 2 · 22:30D. Horak341111123V. Dolezal2358100
LAug 10 · 13:30D. Horak33119761V. Dolezal4071111113
LAug 10 · 10:30D. Horak4577111192V. Dolezal48111169113
WApr 21 · 07:00D. Horak331111113V. Dolezal152850
D. Horak10
LSep 20 · 07:30T. Kolenic2.00861111113D. Horak1.7311119992WSep 20 · 06:00D. Horak1.61691211113F. Briza2.20111110952LSep 19 · 02:58D. Horak1.301061181O. Kucirek3.4012119113WSep 19 · 02:00D. Horak1.57811411113F. Briza2.2511711692LSep 19 · 01:00D. Horak2.2057111142A. Svoboda1.61111165113LSep 19 · 24:00M. Placek1.44111111123D. Horak2.631347101WSep 18 · 22:30O. Kucirek3.5091111101D. Horak1.2811139123LSep 18 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.2811811113D. Horak3.50611681LSep 18 · 16:00D. Horak1.8312271162A. Svoboda1.831011119113LSep 18 · 15:30F. Briza2.2512116113D. Horak1.571081151
V. Dolezal10
LSep 20 · 07:00F. Briza1.6111811113V. Dolezal2.20611761WSep 20 · 06:30V. Dolezal1.9111111113T. Kolenic1.80811511WSep 17 · 03:00R. Bartunek1.9112117892V. Dolezal1.801091111113WSep 17 · 01:30V. Dolezal2.1011511113J. Steffan1.67811661LSep 17 · 24:30M. Smrcek1.4411117113V. Dolezal2.63941151LSep 16 · 23:30R. Bartunek2.001211113V. Dolezal1.7310680LSep 16 · 22:30V. Dolezal2.381015111272P. Picek1.531213714113WSep 16 · 02:58V. Dolezal3.001111113P. Picek1.367660LSep 16 · 02:00V. Dolezal2.2041181192J. Steffan1.61119118113LSep 16 · 01:00V. Dolezal2.63561171A. Svoboda1.4411119113
Upcoming Matches
D. Horak
Nothing scheduled
V. Dolezal
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