TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Tibor Kolenic
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811611119119119
David Horak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:13 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Horak to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTibor Kolenic above · David Horak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held David Horak at 56.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Kolenic 17–28 David Horak Tibor Kolenic has won 17 of their 45 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 13:13What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Horak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-28 in 45
Horak
Wrong
gap of 11 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolenic 1448 vs Horak 1412
Kolenic
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolenic 60% vs Horak 40%
Kolenic
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolenic 60% vs Horak 30%
Kolenic
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolenic -1 · Horak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolenic 2.00 / Horak 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Horak)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159408
Kolenic2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 36 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Horak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 137 of 222
Up 2–0, closes it94% 76 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it80% 102 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolenic4wins
AwayHorak6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHorak leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolenic80%4 of 5
AwayHorak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolenic5Horak5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolenic1Horak9n = 10Horak took 9 of 10
S3Kolenic8Horak2n = 10Kolenic took 8 of 10
S4Kolenic4Horak4n = 8split evenly
S5Kolenic2Horak3n = 5Horak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolenicHorakK − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.241.1−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolenicHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 547 vs 275 / 51146.4%53.8%254 / 547 vs 275 / 511Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolenicKolenic 2.00/Horak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolenic won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 14:00T. Kolenic3911611113D. Horak27411661
LAug 15 · 16:30T. Kolenic4168111152D. Horak46111158113
WAug 12 · 15:30T. Kolenic47117135113D. Horak48611111192
LAug 7 · 15:00T. Kolenic219570D. Horak331111113
LAug 6 · 16:00T. Kolenic45114131162D. Horak51611158113
WAug 4 · 17:30T. Kolenic511171210113D. Horak47511101292
WAug 4 · 14:30T. Kolenic331111113D. Horak228860
LAug 1 · 11:00T. Kolenic35591291D. Horak43111110113
LJul 29 · 17:00T. Kolenic4898111192D. Horak48111187113
LJul 29 · 14:00T. Kolenic32951531D. Horak46111113113
T. Kolenic10
LSep 20 · 06:30V. Dolezal1.9111111113T. Kolenic1.80811511WSep 18 · 17:30T. Kolenic2.38911611113F. Briza1.5311911392LSep 18 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.6711115992F. Briza2.10751111113WSep 18 · 15:00T. Kolenic1.8391311123A. Svoboda1.8311119101WSep 18 · 14:00D. Horak1.50411661T. Kolenic2.5011611113LSep 16 · 17:30T. Kolenic2.20118461Y. Holovatiuk1.6021111113WSep 16 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.8011611113F. Briza1.91611981WSep 16 · 15:00T. Kolenic2.3851113113Y. Holovatiuk1.531171171WSep 16 · 14:00J. Dedek1.83971111102T. Kolenic1.83111177123LSep 15 · 16:59T. Kolenic1.8011711892A. Svoboda1.91411811113
D. Horak10
WSep 20 · 08:00D. Horak1.281111133V. Dolezal3.5077110WSep 20 · 06:00D. Horak1.61691211113F. Briza2.20111110952LSep 19 · 02:58D. Horak1.301061181O. Kucirek3.4012119113WSep 19 · 02:00D. Horak1.57811411113F. Briza2.2511711692LSep 19 · 01:00D. Horak2.2057111142A. Svoboda1.61111165113LSep 19 · 24:00M. Placek1.44111111123D. Horak2.631347101WSep 18 · 22:30O. Kucirek3.5091111101D. Horak1.2811139123LSep 18 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.2811811113D. Horak3.50611681LSep 18 · 16:00D. Horak1.8312271162A. Svoboda1.831011119113LSep 18 · 14:00D. Horak1.50411661T. Kolenic2.5011611113
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